310
FXUS61 KAKQ 300003
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSION SECTIONS UPDATED, BUT NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE,
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED-
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 755 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SE, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE LOCAL AREA, HELPING SET OFF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE SOME
MINIMAL CAPE IS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (ESPECIALLY
IN NE NC). POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE ~20% ACROSS MOST OF
THE SE, WITH THUNDER CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO NC. OTHERWISE,
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE 60S (PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED READING INTO THE UPPER IN THE FAR NW). THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NW. OVERALL, QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE AND MOSTLY DRY WX CONTINUING. A
WEAKER TROUGH (MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME) ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEW PTS RISE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX
IS NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 755 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 00Z/30 TAF PERIOD,
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WORDING FOR A FEW HRS AT ORF/ECG,
BUT OVERALL THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. N-NW
WINDS ~10 KT ON THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SKC-FEW EXCEPT FOR SCT-BKN
CU AT SBY.
OUTLOOK: VFR LIKELY PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF SURGE OF NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND A TROUGH PASSAGE.
- WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
HOWEVER, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NW WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20-22 KT LATER TONIGHT/THU AM (SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING) AS A TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT THE NW WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE, THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO UP TO 15 KT BY SATURDAY EVENING. S-SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
WAVES OF 1-2 FT IN THE BAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 2-3
FT OVER THE OCEAN. WAVES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 3-4 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/LKB
AVIATION...AC/LKB
MARINE...MRD
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