116
FXUS61 KAKQ 300605
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSION SECTIONS UPDATED, BUT NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE,
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED-
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 755 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SE, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE LOCAL AREA, HELPING SET OFF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE SOME
MINIMAL CAPE IS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (ESPECIALLY
IN NE NC). POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE ~20% ACROSS MOST OF
THE SE, WITH THUNDER CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO NC. OTHERWISE,
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE 60S (PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED READING INTO THE UPPER IN THE FAR NW). THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NW. OVERALL, QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE AND MOSTLY DRY WX CONTINUING. A
WEAKER TROUGH (MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME) ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEW PTS RISE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX
IS NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NW WINDS. N-NW WINDS INCREASE TO ~10 KT DURING THE DAY
WITH FEW-SCT AFTN CUMULUS (SCT-BKN AT SBY). MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK: VFR LIKELY PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED S/SE WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NW WINDS ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 18 KT WITH WIND PROBS
ONLY AROUND 50% FOR THE MIDDLE BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH,
WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. S/SE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
LATE SAT INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE SAT NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND 2-3
FT RESPECTIVELY THROUGH EARLY SAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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