817
FXUS61 KAKQ 301053
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION, BUT NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK.
THE WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NY/CT/MA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED, WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
EXITED NE NC, WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S-
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK NE TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH DRY LLVL NW FLOW CONTINUING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
IN FACT, AFTERNOON DEW PTS COULD DROP INTO THE 50S INLAND TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERALL,
QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE AND MOSTLY DRY WX CONTINUING. A
WEAKER TROUGH (MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME) DROPS SSE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLE FROM SAT-SAT NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH MONDAY (AND LIKELY WASH OUT BY TUE). WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, DEEP-
LAYERED S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE FROM A COMFORTABLE 1-1.4" ON SATURDAY TO 2.2-
2.4" BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY (WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND).
THEN, SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY
AND LOWER-MID 80S MONDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS, WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AND
TALL, SKINNY CAPE...NOT REALLY LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WX BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NW WINDS. N-NW WINDS INCREASE TO ~10 KT DURING THE DAY
WITH FEW-SCT AFTN CUMULUS (SCT-BKN AT SBY). MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK: VFR LIKELY PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED S/SE WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NW WINDS ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 18 KT WITH WIND PROBS
ONLY AROUND 50% FOR THE MIDDLE BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH,
WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. S/SE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
LATE SAT INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE SAT NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND 2-3
FT RESPECTIVELY THROUGH EARLY SAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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