703
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS. NO SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN DRY NW FLOW ON
THE LEADING FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. QUITE PLEASANT FOR THE END
OF JULY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONE LAST DRY DAY (BUT
WARMER/MORE HUMID) ON SATURDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH NUDGE OFFSHORE AND THE LLVL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HIGHS NEAR 90F W/ AFTN DEW PTS RISING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY
(AND LIKELY WASH OUT BY TUE). WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, DEEP-LAYERED S TO SW FLOW
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE
FROM A COMFORTABLE 1-1.4" ON SATURDAY TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA DURING THE AFTN (AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES HERE FIRST). SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NE THROUGH THE EVENING (THOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL
REMAIN DRY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE).
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH DAMPENS A BIT FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING ON BOTH DAYS AS WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND
RELATIVELY WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
TEMPS DIP DOWN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z/01 TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH FEW LINGERING CU CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. FROM
THEN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DROP TO AOB 5 KT AND SHIFT MORE SSW OVERNIGHT. MAINLY SCT CU
DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY WITH PRIMARILY SSW 5-10 KT WINDS INLAND
AND TREND FROM SSW TO SSE ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS, AND BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED S/SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OFFSHORE.
- ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS. SEAS
ARE 2FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WILL
BE APPROACHING, LEADING TO AN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. SSE
WINDS INCREASE SAT EVENING TO 15-20KT, THEN DIMINISH BACK TO
10-15KT LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A BRIEF SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY FOR THE SAT EVENING TIMEFRAME. SEAS
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3FT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, AGAIN TO 15-20KT. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THAT TIME, SEAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD TO
4-5FT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEVERE RISK
IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL HAVE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...NB
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