947
FXUS61 KAKQ 010622
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS. NO SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN DRY NW FLOW ON
THE LEADING FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. QUITE PLEASANT FOR THE END
OF JULY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU.
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONE LAST DRY DAY (BUT
WARMER/MORE HUMID) ON SATURDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH NUDGE OFFSHORE AND THE LLVL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HIGHS NEAR 90F W/ AFTN DEW PTS RISING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY
(AND LIKELY WASH OUT BY TUE). WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, DEEP-LAYERED S TO SW FLOW
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE
FROM A COMFORTABLE 1-1.4" ON SATURDAY TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA DURING THE AFTN (AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES HERE FIRST). SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NE THROUGH THE EVENING (THOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL
REMAIN DRY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE).
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH DAMPENS A BIT FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING ON BOTH DAYS AS WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND
RELATIVELY WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
TEMPS DIP DOWN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LIGHT,
GENERALLY SE-S WINDS OF~5 KTS OR LESS ARE BEING MEASURED, WITH
INCREASING UPPER CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER CIRRUS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME FEW-SCT LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. SE-S
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 6-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS, AND BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
MARINE
AS OF 220 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT NOTED OVER THE MIDWEST.
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE S AT 5-10 KT.
WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 1 FT WITH SEAS 2 FT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDWEST LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW
TODAY, RESULTING IN ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN 15-20 KT SW WINDS
OVER THE CHES BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND OFFSHORE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX
BACK INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES AND SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 2-3 FT DURING THE ENHANCED SW FLOW TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STEEPEN AGAIN. ADDITIONAL
SCA HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. GIVEN A LONGER DURATION SW FLOW EVENT, SEAS
WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE (0-20NM RANGE,
HIGHEST N). FARTHER OFFSHORE, SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT FOR A PERIOD
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER
INLAND AREAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
AND LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...RHR
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