737
FXUS61 KAKQ 011759
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOWER HUMIDITY TO START THE WEEKEND.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST, WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING
UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST COAST THAT IS EMANATING
OFF OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS ILLINOIS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE ONE OF THE FOCAL POINTS FOR WEATHER IN THE COMING
DAYS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD A BIT AS THE RIDGE AND AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
NUDGE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE. HIGHS NEAR 90F WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID, WARMER DAY THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2....A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY (AND
LIKELY WASH OUT BY TUE). WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, DEEP-LAYERED S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND REMAIN OVER US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE FROM A COMFORTABLE 1-
1.4" ON SATURDAY TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA
DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES HERE FIRST).
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NE THROUGH THE EVENING
(THOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL REMAIN DRY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON
THE EASTERN SHORE). SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DURING THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH DAMPENS A BIT FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY,
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING ON BOTH DAYS AS WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE, THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES DIP
DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THOUGH NOT QUITE AS
UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE DECREASED COVERAGE FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
18Z, WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT. VFR WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH, BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN N/NW OF RIC. THE WIND WAS S 8-12KT. PRIMARILY VFR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME IFR W OF
RIC. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN, WHICH
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. THE
WIND WILL MAINLY BE S/SSE 5-10KT TONIGHT, AND THEN S/SSW 8-12KT
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS,
AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
MARINE
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFFSHORE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SFC
LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST. LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15KT. SEAS ARE AROUND 2FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY/RIVERS ARE
AROUND 1FT.
THE STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN 15-20 KT SE
WINDS OVER THE CHES BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY FROM 4PM TO 1AM TO COVER THIS.
WINDS IN THE TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND OFFSHORE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX
BACK INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES AND SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 2-3 FT DURING THE ENHANCED SE FLOW TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STEEPEN AGAIN. ADDITIONAL
SCA HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. GIVEN A LONGER DURATION SW FLOW EVENT, SEAS
WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE (0-20NM RANGE,
HIGHEST N). FARTHER OFFSHORE, SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT FOR A PERIOD
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER
INLAND AREAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND
LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC/RHR
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