398
FXUS61 KAKQ 012339
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PREVAILS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOW CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOW-LEVEL SSE FLOW HAS
ALLOWED MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING SBCAPE ~1500 J/KG AND LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.0-7.5 C/KM. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR, SO THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY TALL. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S, AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WARM AND MORE HUMID
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OF 70-75F. MAINLY DRY, WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
TOWARD MORNING.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY (AND LIKELY WASH OUT BY TUESDAY). WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE,
DEEP- LAYERED S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER
US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVES HERE FIRST). SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD NE THROUGH THE EVENING (THOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE).
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH DAMPENS A BIT FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING ON BOTH DAYS AS WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, AND
RELATIVELY WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY, BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THESE
TSTMS. DAYS 2-4 (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ARE IN A 'MARGINAL' ERO
AS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK IS MORE ISOLATED GIVEN A LACK
OF A LARGER SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES DIP
DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD THANKS
TO THE CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THOUGH
NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WITH THE DECREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z/02 TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE S AROUND 5-10 KT, BECOMING MORE
SSW 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT RIC FROM 11-14Z, WITH IFR CIGS
FURTHER TO THE W. ADDITIONALLY, SBY COULD SEE MVFR CIGS, DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE,
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBY
IN HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS, AND BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
MARINE
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFFSHORE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SFC
LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST. LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15KT. SEAS ARE AROUND 2FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY/RIVERS ARE
AROUND 1FT.
THE STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN 15-20 KT SE
WINDS OVER THE CHES BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY FROM 4PM TO 1AM TO COVER THIS.
WINDS IN THE TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND OFFSHORE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX
BACK INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES AND SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 2-3 FT DURING THE ENHANCED SE FLOW TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STEEPEN AGAIN. ADDITIONAL
SCA HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. GIVEN A LONGER DURATION SW FLOW EVENT, SEAS
WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FT RANGE (0-20NM RANGE,
HIGHEST N). FARTHER OFFSHORE, SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT FOR A PERIOD
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER
INLAND AREAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND
LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...AC/RHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page