311
FXUS61 KAKQ 020630
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PREVAILS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOW CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOW-LEVEL SSE FLOW HAS
ALLOWED MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING SBCAPE ~1500 J/KG AND LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.0-7.5 C/KM. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR, SO THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY TALL. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S, AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WARM AND MORE HUMID
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OF 70-75F. MAINLY DRY, WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
TOWARD MORNING.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY (AND LIKELY WASH OUT BY TUESDAY). WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE,
DEEP- LAYERED S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER
US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVES HERE FIRST). SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD NE THROUGH THE EVENING (THOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE).
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH DAMPENS A BIT FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING ON BOTH DAYS AS WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, AND
RELATIVELY WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY, BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THESE
TSTMS. DAYS 2-4 (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ARE IN A 'MARGINAL' ERO
AS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK IS MORE ISOLATED GIVEN A LACK
OF A LARGER SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES DIP
DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD THANKS
TO THE CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THOUGH
NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WITH THE DECREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SE-S AT 5-12 KT (HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST), WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR TO A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS, AND BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER RIVERS.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST SENSORS
REPORTING S OR SSE WINDS OF 10-15 KT. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 2
FT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. EXPECT A LULL IN THE STRONGER S FLOW TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TIGHTENS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS (MINUS THE UPPER JAMES, RAPPAHANNOCK, AND YORK RIVERS)
STARTING AT 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. S AND SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE BAY, SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. OFFSHORE, WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
LONG THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ON MONDAY, SO SOME
EXTENSION TO ONGOING HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT IN THE CHES BAY WHILE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3-5
FT S AND 4-6 FT N. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP OFF FROM S TO N LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY,
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES/SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CORES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY
AND MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK ON MONDAY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630>634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...RHR
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