557
FXUS61 KAKQ 021756
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION, INCLUDING 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS,
AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS, AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS 1024+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE
WEST, A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP SSW FLOW DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MESOANALYSIS REVEAL PW VALUES AROUND 2-2.25", WITH EVEN HIGHER
VALUES (TO ~ 2.50") JUST TO OUR SOUTH EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DAMPENING UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS EAST.
AN EARLIER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTED ACROSS THE US-15 CORRIDOR IN
THE VA PIEDMONT, DROPPING UP TO 1" OF RAIN IN SPOTS FROM LOUISA
TO FARMVILLE TO WEST OF SOUTH HILL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE N AND W. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS OF THIS WRITING
ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL VA, AS WELL
AS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN NC. THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NNE ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SE VA AND EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE, AND
WHILE STORM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLOODING, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES—PRIMARILY
DEPENDENT ON ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED NARROW DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES RAMP DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, LEADING
TO A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS TWO MAIN CORRIDORS WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL MCVS EMBEDDED IN
THE SW FLOW ARRIVE: THE VA PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
LINGERED HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS A BIT LONGER. DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE /IVT OF +3-4 STDDEV/ ALONG THE COAST
SUPPORTING A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.
FARTHER INLAND THOUGH, FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHERE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAINFALL HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LOCALIZED 2-3"+ TOTALS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN RATES EXCEEDING
1"/HR ARE ABOVE 70% ALONG THE US-15 CORRIDOR W/NW OF THE
RICHMOND METRO, WITH A LOW (~10%) PROBABILITY FOR 3"/3HR TOTALS
IN THAT SAME AREA. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOOD
WATCH AREAS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED AREA OF FOCUS, BUT ANY
TRAINING CELLS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THIS EVENING.
FOR MONDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVES ATTENDANT TO THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE GUIDANCE VARIES ON EXACT AREAL COVERAGE, THE
CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN SUPPORTS A PERSISTENCE-BASED
FORECAST FEATURING A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND AN
ISOLATED, LOW-END SEVERE RISK. THE TROUGH WEAKENS FURTHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN EXPECTED AS
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS DESPITE WEAKENING SW FLOW ALOFT.
GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE—LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY LOW DUE TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, A NEAR-SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN, AND WEAK SHEAR.
DAYS 1-3 (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) REMAIN IN A WPC MARGINAL ERO, AS THE
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOCALIZED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
STRONG LARGE-SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK OWING TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIPITATION. NBM NUMBERS DO
LOOK A BIT HIGH COMPARED TO THICKNESS TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT MORE OR LESS
IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH LIMITED CHANGE TO MESSAGING EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK, MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN DECREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MORE SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE MID-TO- UPPER 70S WILL MAINTAIN
MUGGY CONDITIONS, PUSHING HEAT INDICES TOWARD 100 DEGREES FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FROM THE SSE
AT 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT ALONG THE COAST (HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS AROUND KRIC AND KPHF AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW
HOURS OF CONVECTION BEFORE SHOWERS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF. LOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST FROM KECG TO KORF AND KSBY,
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (AGAIN WITH SBY HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY). WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ANY BRIEF VFR CIGS DROP BACK
TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH RIC
COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, AND LINGER INTO
MIDWEEK. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME, MAINLY FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS, AND BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THU-FRI.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER RIVERS.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST SENSORS
REPORTING S OR SSE WINDS OF 10-15 KT. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 2
FT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. EXPECT A LULL IN THE STRONGER S FLOW TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TIGHTENS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS (MINUS THE UPPER JAMES, RAPPAHANNOCK, AND YORK RIVERS)
STARTING AT 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. S AND SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE BAY, SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. OFFSHORE, WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
LONG THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ON MONDAY, SO SOME
EXTENSION TO ONGOING HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT IN THE CHES BAY WHILE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3-5
FT S AND 4-6 FT N. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP OFF FROM S TO N LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY,
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES/SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CORES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY
AND MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN BEACHES MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK ON MONDAY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630>634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
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