573
FXUS61 KAKQ 171829
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
229 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SHOWER/STORM TIMING PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS INTO THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASED SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, BUT STILL
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINING HOT WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING
FOR NE NC.
2) AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES, SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1..ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
REMAINING HOT WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
NE NC.
WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON THE RADAR AT THIS POINT AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR MOST OF OUR NE NC COUNTIES FOR HEAT
INDICES ~105 F; ELSEWHERE, HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY PEAK AROUND
100 DEGREES.
STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE TIMING AGAIN HAS PUSHED BACK
A FEW HOURS WITH MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTING ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY ADVANCE WEST TO EAST,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN ANY
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO LESS-THAN-
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND THE NOCTURNAL TIMING. SPC HAS DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK, WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND EXTENDS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES, SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THOUGH, AGAIN, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE LEE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
LOCAL AREA, AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BY THU AND FRI. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS EVENTUALLY (BRIEFLY)
PUSHING INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARKEDLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE CHC IS ONLY ~30-40% (AT MOST),
SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION WITH PROB30 GROUPS. REMAINING VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH A W-NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. DRIER TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT N WIND.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH W-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT,
~2 FT SEAS, AND 1-2 FT WAVES. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE AM AS A BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE
BOUNDARY CROSSES MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME NORTHERLY AT ~10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. BENIGN, SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KT, WITH WINDS VEERING BACK TO THE S/SE BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. SEAS REMAIN ~2 FT WAVES WITH 1-2 FT WAVES. THE
ONLY NOTABLE MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING STORMS ON TUESDAY.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER COVERAGE
OF STORMS ON THU/FRI. SMWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS,
THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ013>017-
030>032.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
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