110
FXUS61 KAKQ 180707
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERTIE, CHOWAN, AND
HERTFORD NC FOR TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THU-SAT, AND THE ENTIRE AREA
HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NC ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND.
2) MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY, BUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND WELL INLAND
OVER THE VA PIEDMONT.
3) AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK, SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
NNW WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE AS HOT TODAY, BUT WITH DRIER AIR NOT LIKELY TO ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND
QUITE HUMID DAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. FOR COMMUNITIES JUST INLAND AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND, LIGHT WINDS AND A STAGNANT AIR MASS WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-109F RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE
BEEN ISSUED FOR BERTIE, CHOWAN, AND HERTFORD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY TODAY, BUT SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND WELL INLAND OVER THE VA PIEDMONT.
NO APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TODAY, AND THEREFORE EXPECT
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. NONETHELESS, LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE,
AND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTH LATE TODAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND LATE IN THE DAY
ALONG THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. KEPT POPS REMAIN CAPPED AT
20-30%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS RETURN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR
MID TO LATE AUGUST TOMORROW. MODEST DEWPOINT RELIEF FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT SETTLES
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES HOLD AGAIN
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, DRIVING ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU-SAT.
AN ASSOCIATED, SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE
WEEK AND WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SLOWING
BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PWS JUMP BACK
AOA 2-2.25" AND WITH THEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG
CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS, LIKELY COINCIDENT
WITH THE POSITION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WPC HAS
INCLUDED THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA IN MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR DAYS 3-5
(THU- SAT), AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE REFINED IN TIME AS WE GET
CLOSER. MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH AND BRIEFLY INTRODUCING A
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PHF/SBY TERMINALS, AND HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT ORF THAT
COULD LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT
STRATUS/FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SW TO THE N-NW. WIND
SPEEDS ARE AOB 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT BEHIND THE DIRECTION
CHANGE THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL FULLY CROSS THE WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KT. WINDS
WILL VEER BACK TO THE S/SE WED NIGHT/THUR, BUT WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ~2 FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.
BENIGN, SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT TO BOATERS. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS DECREASES WED, WITH A POTENTIALLY GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THUR/FRI. SMWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS, THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ030>032.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAM/SW
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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