501
FXUS61 KAKQ 181934
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
2) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 334 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NE NC. WITH A CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE LOW AND MANY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
INITIATED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC AS THEY ARE IN MUCH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THE SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. IN
ADDITION, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, HOWEVER,
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST AND VERY LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS NORTH OF I-
64 HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. WHILE ACROSS THE SE TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO
REMAINED ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE HEAT INDEX TO
APPROACH 100 TO 105+ IN SOME AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE AREAS ARE
SEEING HEAT INDICES OF 105+. BY TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG CANNOT ALSO BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
FOR WEDNESDAY, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE AREA ALLOWING
DEW POINTS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPS MIXED WITH THE LOWER DP HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE
TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IS ACROSS THE SE
WHERE DP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER. WITH THESE DP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION IS
LOW AND ONLY A SLIGHT-CHANCE (LESS THAN 25%) REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU-SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY.
AS OF THIS UPDATE THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE BETTER SHEAR OVERLAPPING
WITH MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
MULTIPLE ROUND WITH THE FIRST ROUND BEING ALONG A LEE TROUGH AND THE
SECOND ROUND BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
TWO ROUNDS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WITH TWO DIFFERENT STORM MODES.
THE LEE TROUGH THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A MIX MODE OF DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DESCREATE CELLS THAT COULD POSE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
AS MODEST SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. WHILE ALONG THE STRONGER
FORCING COLD FRONT MORE OF A CLUSTER TO LINE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. WITH COLLABORATING WITH SPC DECIDED TO KEEP THE MARGINAL IN
PLACE. IN TERMS OF THE HYDRO THREAT THURS-SAT HAVE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWS JUMP BACK AOA 2-2.3" AND WITH THEM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNS, LIKELY COINCIDENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE DAYS AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WPC A
MARGINAL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE DAYS. HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES ESPECIALLY OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS
THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UPGRADE IN THE RISK. MODEL ENSEMBLES
STILL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH AND
BRIEFLY INTRODUCING A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 116 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS, ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA, AN MVFR
CIG CONDITIONS ACROSS SBY HAVE BEEN NOTED AT THE START OF THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. LINGERING LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT
SBY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT
THE SE TERMINALS AND SBY THAT COULD LEAD TO SHORT- LIVED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE PROB30S HAVE BEEN
ADDED. SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SW TO THE N-NW. WIND
SPEEDS ARE AOB 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT BEHIND THE DIRECTION
CHANGE THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL FULLY CROSS THE WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KT. WINDS
WILL VEER BACK TO THE S/SE WED NIGHT/THUR, BUT WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ~2 FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.
BENIGN, SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT TO BOATERS. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS DECREASES WED, WITH A POTENTIALLY GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THUR/FRI. SMWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS, THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ030>032.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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