402
FXUS61 KAKQ 190527
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
127 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
2) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 910 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN, WITH A ZONAL/WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE
NC, BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WITH DEW PTS IN THE 70S. A LOT OF CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE CLOSER TO
THE COAST, WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVERNIGHT AND THE CLEARING TREND, THE PATTERN APPEARS
CONDUCIVE TO SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS, AND PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG BEING ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
FOR WEDNESDAY, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE AREA ALLOWING
DEW POINTS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPS MIXED WITH THE LOWER DP HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE
TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IS ACROSS THE SE
WHERE DP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER. WITH THESE DP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION IS
LOW AND ONLY A SLIGHT-CHANCE (LESS THAN 25%) REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT WITH AROUND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU-SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY.
AS OF THIS UPDATE THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE BETTER SHEAR OVERLAPPING
WITH MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
MULTIPLE ROUND WITH THE FIRST ROUND BEING ALONG A LEE TROUGH AND THE
SECOND ROUND BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
TWO ROUNDS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WITH TWO DIFFERENT STORM MODES.
THE LEE TROUGH THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A MIX MODE OF DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DESCREATE CELLS THAT COULD POSE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
AS MODEST SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. WHILE ALONG THE STRONGER
FORCING COLD FRONT MORE OF A CLUSTER TO LINE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. WITH COLLABORATING WITH SPC DECIDED TO KEEP THE MARGINAL IN
PLACE. IN TERMS OF THE HYDRO THREAT, THURS THROUGH SAT HAVE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWS JUMP BACK AOA 2-2.3"
AND WITH THEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG CONVECTION AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS, LIKELY COINCIDENT WITH THE
POSITION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE DAYS
AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WPC A MARGINAL REMAINS IN EFFECT.
HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES ESPECIALLY
OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN
UPGRADE IN THE RISK. MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL GENERALLY AGREE THAT
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH AND BRIEFLY
INTRODUCING A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORT-LIVED GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY, BUT HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT PHF AS WELL. AFTER ANY LINGERING MIFG
CLEARS, MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY TODAY, WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WEST OF KECG. CHANCES ARE FAR TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W-NW INLAND, AND E-NE AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED MOST OF THE WATERS TODAY, AND IS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE N-NE AT ~10 KT WITH 2 FT
SEAS AND 1-2 FT WAVES. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE VA
AND NE NC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF,
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS (CAN'T RULE OUT A SMW OR TWO FOR 34+ KT
WINDS). BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE S/SE BY WED NIGHT, BUT WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
WATERS ON THURSDAY AND LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ~2
FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES. THE CHANCE OF STORMS DECREASES WED, WITH A
GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SMWS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY).
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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