756
FXUS61 KAKQ 190719
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY.
2) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT.
3) COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
AS OF 910 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
TODAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTIC
CANADA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
TO THE WEST, WEAK 1016MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALOFT, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
FOR TODAY, A BRIEF RESPITE IS IN STORE, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-SOUTH. MORE EFFICIENT MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH DEW
POINT VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND, UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS 1-2 DEG
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TEMPS MIXED WITH THE LOWER TD
VALUES SHOULD ACTUALLY YIELD HEAT INDICES THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE
AIR TEMPERATURE. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
TODAY, WITH PWS FALLING BACK CLOSER TO TYPICAL VALUES FOR MID-
LATE AUGUST (1.25-1.4"). THERE REMAINS A VERY LOW CHANCE ALONG
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE, MAINLY
BETWEEN EDENTON AND ELIZABETH CITY. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONABLE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HOWEVER, TODAY'S BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SHORT- LIVED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS SE
CANADA THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THAT
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF
THAT TROUGH, MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC
THU- SAT. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE A SEASONALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA STARTING THURSDAY, BUT AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THAT FRONTAL TIMING WILL LIKELY
SLOW IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE EURO AT THE FAST END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND THE GFS/CMC LAGGING AT LEAST 12-24 HR BEHIND. GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY APPARENT SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION, CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND HAS INCREASED WITH THIS
LATEST MODEL CYCLE. PWS QUICKLY BUILD BACK UP AOA 2-2.25" FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WITH THEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE STRONG CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS,
LIKELY COINCIDENT WITH THE POSITION OF SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (RFQ
OF A 60-80 KT UPPER JET AND DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS JUST E-NE, RESULTING IN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HREF IS ALREADY OUTLOOKING A 30% PROB OF 3"/3/HR
OVER THE VA NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND WITH OUR AREA
REMAINING IN THE FAMILIAR POSITION OF BEING DOWNSTREAM FROM A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
QUITE POSSIBLY SUNDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE CAMS ONLY RUN INTO
THU NIGHT AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT ARE STARTING TO KEY IN TO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUST
TO OUR NW, WITH THAT LOW SLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL,
AS SOME OF THE CAMS ARE GENERATING RELATIVELY STRONG HELICITY
TRACKS NEAR THE TRACK OF THAT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE LEE TROUGH CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ON THU, AND WITH MLCAPE INCREASING
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME, SPC HAS MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOKS FOR DAY
2 AND 3 (THU/FRI), WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RELATIVE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE, MODEL ENSEMBLES DO STILL GENERALLY
AGREE THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
FINALLY DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BRIEFLY
INTRODUCING A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORT-LIVED GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY, BUT HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT PHF AS WELL. AFTER ANY LINGERING MIFG
CLEARS, MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY TODAY, WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WEST OF KECG. CHANCES ARE FAR TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W-NW INLAND, AND E-NE AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS ARE N/NW EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5 KT, AND WILL
VEER TO THE S/SE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KT. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY, AND WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. TODAY WILL BE
DRY, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY
THAN FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS COULD BRING STRONG STORMS TO THE WATERS,
WHICH WOULD BE COVERED BY SMWS IF NEEDED.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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