680
FXUS61 KAKQ 190734
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION
- A SLIGHT RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREA HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MARGINAL RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND FOR COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY.
2) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT.
3) COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTIC
CANADA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
TO THE WEST, WEAK 1016MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALOFT, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
FOR TODAY, A BRIEF RESPITE IS IN STORE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-SOUTH. MORE EFFICIENT MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S INLAND, AND
UPPER 60S TO MID-70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES MIXED WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY, WITH PWS
FALLING BACK CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID-TO-LATE AUGUST VALUES
(1.25-1.4"). A VERY LOW RAIN CHANCE REMAINS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S SEA BREEZE, MAINLY BETWEEN EDENTON
AND ELIZABETH CITY. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TODAY'S BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT
TROUGH, MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU-
SAT. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE A SEASONALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA STARTING THURSDAY, THOUGH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY SLOW IN UPCOMING MODEL CYCLES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING, WITH THE ECMWF ON THE FASTER
END OF GUIDANCE AND THE GFS/CMC LAGGING BY 12-24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION, CONCERN FOR SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS
INCREASED. PWS QUICKLY BUILD BACK AOA 2-2.25" THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, RENEWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (RFQ OF A 60-80 KT UPPER JET)
AND DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, SERVING TO ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS E-NE. HREF IS ALREADY
INDICATING A 30% PROBABILITY OF 3"/3HR OVER THE VA NORTHERN NECK
AND EASTERN SHORE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND LIKELY SUNDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, CAMS KEY IN ON WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NW,
SLIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE EXACT FRONT LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL, AS SOME
CAMS GENERATE NOTABLE HELICITY TRACKS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK, WHICH COULD PORTEND INCREASING SRH AND POTENTIAL SPIN-UP
TORNADOES IF THE BOUNDARY SINKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD. IN EITHER
EVENT, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY, AND WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA, CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOKS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 (THU/FRI),
MORE THAN REASONABLE GIVEN REFERENCED UNCERTAINTY. WPC HAS
PLACED THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AND COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVING
THE FRONT THROUGH AND BRIEFLY INTRODUCING A COOLER, DRIER AIR
MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORT-LIVED GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY, BUT HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT PHF AS WELL. AFTER ANY LINGERING MIFG
CLEARS, MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY TODAY, WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WEST OF KECG. CHANCES ARE FAR TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W-NW INLAND, AND E-NE AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS ARE N/NW EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5 KT, AND WILL
VEER TO THE S/SE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KT. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY, AND WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. TODAY WILL BE
DRY, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY
THAN FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS COULD BRING STRONG STORMS TO THE WATERS,
WHICH WOULD BE COVERED BY SMWS IF NEEDED.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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