338
FXUS61 KAKQ 191707
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z
- A SLIGHT RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREA HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MARGINAL RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY.
2) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT.
3) COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTIC
CANADA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
TO THE WEST, WEAK 1016MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALOFT, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
FOR TODAY, A BRIEF RESPITE IS IN STORE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-SOUTH. MORE EFFICIENT MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S INLAND, AND
UPPER 60S TO MID-70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES MIXED WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY, WITH PWS
FALLING BACK CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID-TO-LATE AUGUST VALUES
(1.25-1.4"). A VERY LOW RAIN CHANCE REMAINS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S SEA BREEZE, MAINLY BETWEEN EDENTON
AND ELIZABETH CITY. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TODAY'S BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURS-SAT.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT
TROUGH, MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU-
SAT. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE A SEASONALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA STARTING THURSDAY, THOUGH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY SLOW IN UPCOMING MODEL CYCLES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING, WITH THE ECMWF ON THE FASTER
END OF GUIDANCE AND THE GFS/CMC LAGGING BY 12-24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION, CONCERN FOR SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS
INCREASED. PWS QUICKLY BUILD BACK AOA 2-2.25" THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, RENEWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (RFQ OF A 60-80 KT UPPER JET)
AND DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, SERVING TO ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS E-NE. HREF IS ALREADY
INDICATING A 30% PROBABILITY OF 3"/3HR OVER THE VA NORTHERN NECK
AND EASTERN SHORE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY,
KEEPING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, CAMS KEY IN ON WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NW,
SLIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE EXACT FRONT LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL, AS SOME
CAMS GENERATE NOTABLE HELICITY TRACKS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK, WHICH COULD PORTEND INCREASING SRH AND POTENTIAL SPIN-UP
TORNADOES IF THE BOUNDARY SINKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD. IN EITHER
EVENT, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE TOMORROW, AND WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA, CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOKS FOR DAY 2 (THU) AND OVER
THE FAR SE DAY 3 (FRI), MORE THAN REASONABLE GIVEN REFERENCED
UNCERTAINTY. WPC HAS PLACED THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES BACK IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH AND BRIEFLY INTRODUCING A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 107 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY TODAY, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VICINITY OF KECG. CHANCES ARE STILL TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W-NW INLAND, AND E-NE AT THE COAST. BY TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL BE COMING FROM THE SSW.
OUTLOOK: POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 107 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME S TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KT LATE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY, AND WILL LIKELY STALL
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY EVENING (MOST LIKELY TIMING BETWEEN
5-11 PM OVER THE WATERS). A FEW SMWS ARE LIKELY, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS
TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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