194
FXUS61 KAKQ 191849
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
249 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TOMORROW AND WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS. THEN B EARLY
NEXT WEEK, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 249 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO
FILTER IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO AN
OVERALL PLEASANT DAY. SKIES ARE REMAINING PARTY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AS DEW POINTS WILL LOWLY INCREASE AS A
PSEUDO-WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TOMORROW AND WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS. THEN B EARLY
NEXT WEEK, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY STARTING TOMORROW AND
LASTING THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS SE CANADA, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, ARE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH, MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THU- SAT. THESE WAVES WILL HELP DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED TOMORROW AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A LEE TROUGH TO THE NW, MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TOMORROW. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT IS NOT YET KNOWN BUT THE GENERAL AREA IS. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STORMS ARE PROGGED TO FIRE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TRACK EAST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING MODEST BULK-SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND INCREASING MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF I-95. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS THAT WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. HOWEVER,
WILL MENTION, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND SRH. BY THE EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE AS THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO PLACE. WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID AND COLLABORATING WITH SPC A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED TO AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.
IN REGARDS TO THE HYDRO THREAT, GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL
PROGRESSION, CONCERN FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK AOA 2-2.3" THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALLOWING
FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HREF HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE
PROBABILITY OF 3"/3HR OVER THE EASTERN VA (INCLUDING TIDEWATER) AND
EASTERN SHORE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING
TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST
DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH AND BRIEFLY INTRODUCING A COOLER, DRIER
AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 107 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY TODAY, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VICINITY OF KECG. CHANCES ARE STILL TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W-NW INLAND, AND E-NE AT THE COAST. BY TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL BE COMING FROM THE SSW.
OUTLOOK: POTENTIALLY TURNING UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 107 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME S TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KT LATE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY, AND WILL LIKELY STALL
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY EVENING (MOST LIKELY TIMING BETWEEN
5-11 PM OVER THE WATERS). A FEW SMWS ARE LIKELY, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS
TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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