600
FXUS61 KAKQ 200545
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE TONIGHT.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS.
3) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 249 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO
FILTER IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO AN
OVERALL PLEASANT DAY. SKIES ARE REMAINING PARTLY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AS DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS
A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TOMORROW AND WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY STARTING TOMORROW
AND LASTING THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS SE CANADA, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, ARE
PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC THU- SAT. THESE WAVES WILL
HELP DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA STARTING TOMORROW.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED TOMORROW AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A LEE TROUGH TO THE NW,
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TOMORROW. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT IS NOT YET KNOWN BUT THE GENERAL AREA IS. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STORMS ARE PROGGED
TO FIRE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TRACK EAST. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MODEST BULK-SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
AND INCREASING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF I-95. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
THAT WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. HOWEVER, WILL MENTION, A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH.
BY THE EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE AS THE STRONGER FORCING
MOVES INTO PLACE. WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID AND COLLABORATING
WITH SPC A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED TO
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
IN REGARDS TO THE HYDRO THREAT, GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL
PROGRESSION, CONCERN FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK AOA 2-2.3" THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALLOWING
FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HREF HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE
PROBABILITY OF 3"/3HR OVER EASTERN VA (INCLUDING TIDEWATER) AND
THE EASTERN SHORE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR
AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION PERSISTING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
EAST, DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IN IT'S WAKE, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION, INTRODUCING A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL SCT- BKN CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 20/21Z). STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN/REDUCED VSBYS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD IFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT PHF/ORF FRIDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 107 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME S TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KT LATE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY, AND WILL LIKELY STALL
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY EVENING (MOST LIKELY TIMING BETWEEN
5-11 PM OVER THE WATERS). A FEW SMWS ARE LIKELY, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS
TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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