557
FXUS61 KAKQ 200658
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION
- A SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE VA AND NE NC. A SLIGH
RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL
VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE (VA/MD).
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PEAKS TODAY, WITH ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT FROM PERIODIC LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINS
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AND
LASTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PEAKS TODAY,
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FROM PERIODIC LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEGINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK INTO CENTRAL IN/IL
AS OF THIS WRITING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PIVOTING ACROSS SE CANADA WILL AMPLIFY A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE EASTERN SHORE BY LATE MORNING. HOW
FAR SOUTH THESE CLOUDS CAN PUSH WILL BE A CRUCIAL PIECE
REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, BUT COULD
EVOLVE RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
RICHMOND, TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN
SHORE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY (MLCAPE
1500–2000 J/KG EAST OF I-95) AND STRONG 30–40 KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. INITIAL DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WILL QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE OF A QLCS/BOWING LINE SEGMENT STORM MODE
AS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH LINE-PARALLEL FLOW FOCUSED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS INITIAL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE POSES
THE HIGHEST BRIEF TORNADO THREAT, PARTICULARLY FROM NORTH OF RIC
TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
BOUNDARY-RELATIVE 0–1 KM SRH IS MAXIMIZED. THEREAFTER, COLD-POOL
DOMINANT PROCESSES WILL TAKE OVER, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD
TRANSITIONING TO STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
AS FORCING PUSHES THE FRONT EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME THAT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROTRACTED HYDRO CONCERN BEGINS.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR
D1 SLIGHT RISK TO COVER MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR SE VA AND NE NC, WHICH REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA.
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. PWATS REBOUND TO 2.0-2.3", SUPPORTING
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BROAD
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE, EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WHILE
LOCALIZED 3"/3HR HREF PROBABILITIES HAVE PUSHED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH, AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS A VERY
CONSISTENT QPF FOOTPRINT FROM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF CAMS
SHOWING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST OF
EASTERN VA AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, COINCIDENT WITH
CONVECTION AND A DEVELOPING THETA-E RIDGE. SLOW MOVING STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST
LOCALIZED ISSUES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY IN
URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY, WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
CAMS HAVE REMAINED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR HEAVY RAIN
SIGNAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHIFTING INTO THE CAROLINAS, INCLUDING SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND
NE NC LOCALLY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS FARTHER SE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING, DIVING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, THE INITIAL FRONT WILL STILL BE DRAPED
ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE
STALLED FRONT TO THE SE WILL EACH BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND, AND NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SAT EVENING.
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND INTO
NC, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE VA COAST AND EASTERN SHORE. A
SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A MARGINAL RISK FAR NW COUNTIES. AND A MARGINAL
RISK IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF I-95 ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIR MASS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL SCT- BKN CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 20/21Z). STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN/REDUCED VSBYS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD IFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT PHF/ORF FRIDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 10-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATER
TODAY, STALLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BOUNDARY NEARBY,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION (15-20 KT), ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE
MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING (MOST LIKELY TIMING BETWEEN 5 PM-12
AM OVER THE WATERS). WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE, AND SMWS ARE
LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A
FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...ERI/KMC
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