710
FXUS61 KAKQ 201939
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION
- A TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2)THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
3) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 338 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE 700MB
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG THE AXIS HELPING TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN NOTED OVER NOVA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MD WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND A LEE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ON ITS WAY ACROSS SE
VA AND NE NC. THESE STORMS ENTERING ARE ENTERING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND BULK-SHEAR OF 25-35KT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUITABLE;E FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL TO SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER OF THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING EXPECT STORM COVERAGE AND THE SEVERE TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MD EASTERN SHORE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THIS NORTH AND WILL
HELP INITIATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN PRIMED ACROSS THE AREAS AS THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY MIXING
BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG AND THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 30-40KT. THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS VA
AND NC THROUGH THE EVENING IS DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAXIMIZED FURTHER NORTH DUE TO LOWER LCL AND
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE A BRIEF
SPIN UP ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN NECK AS IT IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. AGAIN, IN REGARDS TO THE TORNADO THREAT THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO OR TWO IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MD EASTERN
SHORE. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 0-1 SRH IN THE REALM OF 100-200 M^2/S^2 WHICH IS CONDUCIVE
FOR TORNADOES. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENTS IN PLACE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VA AND NC AND A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE WATCHES ARE THROUGH 10PM
AS OF NOW AND TRENDS IN STORMS AND THE ATM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
IN REGARDS TO THE HYDRO THREAT TODAY AND TOMORROW, GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION, CONCERN FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. PWATS HAVE RISEN TO 2-2.3" TODAY ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND THEN LATER THIS
EVENING THE EXPECTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HREF CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON
THE PROBABILITY OF 3"/3HR OVER THE EASTERN VA (INCLUDING TIDEWATER)
AND EASTERN SHORE TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW BEFORE PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR
AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION PERSISTING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE
DISAGREEMENT A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, A FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ONCE LOCATION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY IS NOTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIR MASS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 131 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS START OFF THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SE TO SSW
WINDS BLOWING AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INTIMATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SE AND
EASTERN SHORE. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BRINGING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPOS HAVE REPLACED THE PROB30S
AT ALL TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
INCREASED. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. AFTER THESE STORMS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BRINGING MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD IFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT PHF/ORF FRIDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SSE WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATER TODAY, STALLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION (15-20 KT), ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
INLAND, SO EXPECTING STORM CHANCES OVER WATER TO RAMP UP NOW THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE, AND SMWS ARE
LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A
FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC
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