827
FXUS61 KAKQ 210239
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1039 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION
- ALL TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE SE 1/2
OF THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED.
2) THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
3) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1035 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BISECTING
THE CWA, AND SLOWLY DROPPING FARTHER TO THE SE. AS THE SFC
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT, IT MAY STALL
OVERNIGHT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WHILE THERE IS STILL DECENT ML CAPE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (> 1000 J/KG), SFC-BASED CAPE HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF
PORTIONS OF NE NC (PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRONGER STORMS FROM
EARLIER TODAY). THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT IS QUITE
LOW, AND EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS BEEN SCALED BACK. WITH
THAT SAID, STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AROUND 4 AM, AND POPS
REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE FA. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOW-MID 70S IN THE FAR SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW BEFORE PUSHING
TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DISAGREEMENT A FLOOD
WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A FLOOD WATCH
MAYBE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ONCE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IS NOTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIR MASS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS HOUR, THOUGH A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT SBY BETWEEN NOW-01Z. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH THAT THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY APPROACH SE
VA/NE NC, BUT WILL MAINTAIN TEMPOS HERE (EXCEPT FOR A PROB30 AT
ECG). THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 06-08Z
TONIGHT. BRIEF GUSTS TO 30-45 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. AFTER THESE STORMS LOW- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BRINGING MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS POTENTIALLY
MOVE INTO THE SE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SSE WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATER TODAY, STALLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION (15-20 KT), ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
INLAND, SO EXPECTING STORM CHANCES OVER WATER TO RAMP UP NOW THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE, AND SMWS ARE
LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A
FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page