957
FXUS61 KAKQ 211715
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, WITH TIMING TRENDING LATER IN THE EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT.
- A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO
THE AREA EAST OF I-95 ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA, NOW LINGERING IN THE SE.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT, CAUSING IT
TO STALL OVER THE AREA NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MOISTURE RICH AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.75-2.0" IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH QPF VALUES OF 0.50-1.25" FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND 0.10-0.50" FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN URBAN AREAS.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TIMING BACK FOR THE
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL, NOW SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
AFTER 8 PM, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE MOST OF THE DAY DRY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND NE NC,
BUT THE THREAT IS MARGINAL AS CAPE VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 500 J/KG.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, BEGINNING
TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND OFFSHORE. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00" IN
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT MAY BE IN AREAS THAT DIDN'T SEE MUCH
RAINFALL TONIGHT. UNLIKE FRIDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN MOST OF
THE DAY. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF I-95 ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE, AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SE CONUS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK,
WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP RETURNING MID TO
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR NORTH WITH VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
SE VA/NE NC. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TO HIGH-
END MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTN. CIGS LOWER TO 500-2000 FEET (LOWEST
AT RIC) TONIGHT AS THAT FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
BRIEF LIFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES (SHOWERS W/
ISOLATED TSTMS) INCREASE AT RIC/SBY OVERNIGHT BUT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AREN'T EXPECTED. STILL, IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. REMAINING UNSETTLED ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED (BEST CHANCE AT SBY/PHF/ORF).
CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO ~2000 FT BY EARLY SAT AFTN.
OUTLOOK: EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY MORNING MARINE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A MODEST NORTHERLY SURGE
ONGOING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ~15
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. A QUICK REDUCTION IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE
E/NE. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY, BECOMING SW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN W SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH DAILY SEA
BREEZES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERALLY
AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY (POTENTIALLY ~3 FT EARLY THIS MORNING). ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW
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