354
FXUS61 KAKQ 211829
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW STATIONARY
AND HAS SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT, AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT ARE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA DESPITE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NC. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND BISECT THE AREA BY EARLY
SAT AM. AS A RESULT, EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO
DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC DURING THE EVENING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING N AND NE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
SHIFT TO AREAS NEAR THE BAY AND THE EASTERN SHORE BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWS OF 1.7-
2.1"), LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT, AND A FEW
AREAS COULD SEE 2-3" IN A SHORT TIME (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-64). A FLOOD
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED, BUT FEEL THAT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE
LOCALIZED ENOUGH (AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH) FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE 12Z/21 HREF HAS 10% PROBS FOR
3" IN 3 HOURS FOR MAINLY S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA-NC
BORDER BETWEEN NOW-9 PM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA SATURDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/LOWER EASTERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE PENINSULAS
TO EASTERN SHORE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE EARLIER THAN USUAL
AND MAY EVEN BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING. WHILE THE SATURATED
PROFILE AND WEAK SFC HEATING (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S) SHOULD
MITIGATE THE SEVERE WX POTENTIAL, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE). SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT, A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 2-3" OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. WPC
HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE, AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN BY WED/THU,
WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR NORTH WITH VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
SE VA/NE NC. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TO HIGH-
END MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTN. CIGS LOWER TO 500-2000 FEET (LOWEST
AT RIC) TONIGHT AS THAT FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
BRIEF LIFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES (SHOWERS W/
ISOLATED TSTMS) INCREASE AT RIC/SBY OVERNIGHT BUT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AREN'T EXPECTED. STILL300, IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. REMAINING UNSETTLED ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED (BEST CHANCE AT SBY/PHF/ORF).
CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO ~2000 FT BY EARLY SAT AFTN.
OUTLOOK: EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS NNE WIND PREVAILING AROUND 10KT
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15KT ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND
2-3FT ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE ZONES AND 3-4FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO SHIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 10KT WITH THE SHIFT AND WILL BE OUT OF THE E. IN
ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD POSE THE RISK OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34KT AND
LIGHTNING. IN TERMS OF WAVE HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
THEM. BY SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN, THEN BECOMING SW
BY SATURDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO OUR WATERS, THESE WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET
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