963
FXUS61 KAKQ 220709
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK DOWNGRADED TO A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR EASTERN VA AND THE MD EASTERN
SHORE
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING, ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE NC/SC COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
BROAD TROUGH AXIS ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY,
THERE IS A RIBBON OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS CONFLICTS WITH SEVERAL
EARLIER RUNS OF VARIOUS CAMS WHICH DEPICTED RATHER WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
IN FACT, THESE AREAS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE STABLE AS OF THIS WRITING
WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S,
WHICH YIELDS LOW/NEAR-ZERO SFC-BASED AND MUCAPE. ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR S, IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THEREFORE, REALLY DON'T SEE MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.
THE FRONT WILL (EVENTUALLY) LIFT NORTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL AND WPC PROGS ALSO DEPICT WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EASTERN SHORE.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN
THE DAY, SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (PWATS ~2.1" ACROSS THE E/SE) AND SLOW-
MOVING ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING RISK. THE 00Z HREF ALSO DEPICTED A RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING IN THE
EASTERN SHORE VICINITY. HOWEVER, ALL OF THE 00Z MEMBERS THAT
COMPRISED THE ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY EXTREMELY POORLY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION LATER TODAY IS LOW AND SOME RECENT RUNS OF THE CAMS ARE
LESS BULLISH ABOUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL. WPC HAS REMOVED THE TARGETED
"SLIGHT" EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK (WHICH WAS IN PLACE FOR EASTERN
VA AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE) AND REPLACED IT WITH A BROAD
"MARGINAL" RISK. IN SUMMARY, LOCALIZED POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE
COVERAGE MAY TEND TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. ALL OF THIS PRECLUDES
THE NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. LATE THIS EVENING,
CONVECTION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH, COULD APPROACH OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AND REDUCED FORCING
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE "COOL" FOR MID-LATE
AUGUST AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S (SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE
SE). SKIES WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE W
OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY, AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
LOOKING LIKELY (EXCEPT 60S FAR SE). THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BREAK
DOWN BY WED/THU, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED-
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TO START OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST SITES ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR AS OF 06Z BUT
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LOWER CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CREEP INTO MOST OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CIGS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 500-2000 FEET RANGE
(LOWEST AT RIC) AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK N.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. WHILE
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY, IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. REMAINING UNSETTLED HEADING
INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED (BEST CHANCE AT ORF AND ECG). CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRYING OUT TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR
INLAND AROUND OR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THE
WIND IS E 5-10KT. SEAS ARE 2-3FT, WITH ~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN E WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, BEFORE
BECOMING SE ~10KT THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY AN E/SE WIND ~10KT
FOR THE CHES. BAY, SE/S 5-10KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL/OFFSHORE
WATERS, TIDAL RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE
WIND BECOMES SW 5-10KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH
CROSS THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO W 5-10KT.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT TO NW, BEFORE BECOMING W/SW WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LESS
THAN 10KT. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO NNW. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
S/SW FLOW AT OR BELOW 15KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2FT TO
OCCASIONALLY 3FT FOR THE NEXT WEEK, WITH 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
A LOW RIP RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY. THERE
IS A PERIOD OF INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE ~50 DEGREES FOR SHORE
NORMAL, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A LONGSHORE CURRENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD KEEP THE RIP
RISK AT LOW FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AJZ
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