250
FXUS61 KAKQ 221735
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
135 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK TRIMMED BACK TO JUST
THE EASTERN SHORE.
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) SEVERE RISK ADDED TO AREAS WEST OF I-95
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING, ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE NC/SC COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
BROAD TROUGH AXIS ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY,
THERE IS A RIBBON OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS CONFLICTS WITH SEVERAL
EARLIER RUNS OF VARIOUS CAMS WHICH DEPICTED RATHER WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
IN FACT, THESE AREAS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE STABLE AS OF THIS WRITING
WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S,
WHICH YIELDS LOW/NEAR-ZERO SFC-BASED AND MUCAPE. ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR S, IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THEREFORE, REALLY DON'T SEE MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.
THE FRONT WILL (EVENTUALLY) LIFT NORTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL AND WPC PROGS ALSO DEPICT WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EASTERN SHORE.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN
THE DAY, SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (PWATS ~2.1" ACROSS THE E/SE) AND SLOW-
MOVING ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING RISK. THE 00Z HREF ALSO DEPICTED A RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING IN THE
EASTERN SHORE VICINITY. HOWEVER, ALL OF THE 00Z MEMBERS THAT
COMPRISED THE ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY EXTREMELY POORLY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION LATER TODAY IS LOW AND SOME RECENT RUNS OF THE CAMS ARE
LESS BULLISH ABOUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL. IN SUMMARY, LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN AND THE COVERAGE MAY TEND TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. ALL
OF THIS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS EVENING, CONVECTION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH, COULD
APPROACH OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES. HOWEVER, DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND REDUCED FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE "COOL" FOR MID-LATE
AUGUST AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S (SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE
SE). SKIES WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE W
OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY, AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
LOOKING LIKELY (EXCEPT 60S FAR SE). THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BREAK
DOWN BY WED/THU, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED-
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CONDITIONS HAVE OVERALL IMPROVED AT THE TERMINALS AS OF LATEST
OBS, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING IN THE REGION AS
A WHOLE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS, BUT HAVE LARGELY AVOIDED THE TERMINALS. LEFT PRECIP AS
PROB30S FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT DID
PUT SHOWERS IN A PREVAILING GROUP FOR SBY SINCE THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH THE SHOWERS FROM THE CHES BAY
CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, USHERING IN DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WINDS TURN TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE INLAND LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK: DRYING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN. DRY AND
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FIRST TROUGH OVER THE CHES BAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE SE 5-10 KT FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CHES BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 20 KT IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCAS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY MON WITH A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT TO NW, BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
LESS THAN 10KT. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
TUE, RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO N/NNE. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN SE-SW
FLOW AT OR BELOW 15KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PREDOMINANT SEAS OF ONLY AROUND 2 FT. MEANWHILE, WAVES REMAIN 1 FT
TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY. A LOW RIP RISK WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH TUE. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
TUE, NEARSHORE SEAS REMAIN ONLY AROUND 1-2 FT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RMM
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