910
FXUS61 KAKQ 230530
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT IS STILL
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF MID-DAY SURFACE ANALYSIS. A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN REGION. ALOFT, A TROUGH
AXIS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST, PLACING THE FA UNDER SW FLOW.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING TODAY. DUE TO CONFLICTING FLOWS
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY. LUCKILY, THESE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO OVER THE
MARINE AREAS, SO FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN
NECESSARY SO FAR. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATION IN ONE OF THE STORMS OVER THE CHES BAY, WHICH RESULTED
IN AN SMW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP
OVER COASTAL LAND AREAS, THOUGH. WITH LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT,
PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 2", AND INSTABILITY SITTING AT ~1000 J/KG,
FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL BE A THREAT WHERE THESE SHOWERS POP
UP. BASED ON THE HREF/REFS OUTPUTS, THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY BE ON
THE EASTERN SHORE ONCE THE SFC FRONT SLIDES NORTHEAST AND THOSE
EXISTING SHOWERS FINALLY DRIFT EAST. THIS THINKING LINES UP
WELL WITH THE UPDATED DAY 1 ERO THAT TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) TO JUST THE EASTERN SHORE. THESE SHOWERS (AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER) WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT KICKS THEM OUT.
SPEAKING OF THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE 12Z HREF INDICATES THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE
ALONG WITH 25-30KT OF SHEAR SHOULD LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS. THE SPC DID EXPAND
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO
COVER THIS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. TIMING LOOKS
TO BE 8P-12A.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY, AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S SUNDAY. A REINFORCING INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IS LIKELY MONDAY/
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S LOOKING LIKELY (EXCEPT 60S FAR
SE). UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED- SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH BREAKS
DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS (W/ A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS) ARE CLEARING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A ~1 HR PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
AT SBY FROM THESE SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME W 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY-MID WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FIRST TROUGH OVER THE CHES BAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE SE 5-10 KT FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CHES BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 20 KT IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCAS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS SUCH, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY MON WITH A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT TO NW, BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
LESS THAN 10KT. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
TUE, RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO N/NNE. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN SE-SW
FLOW AT OR BELOW 15KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PREDOMINANT SEAS OF ONLY AROUND 2 FT. MEANWHILE, WAVES REMAIN 1 FT
TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY. A LOW RIP RISK WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH TUE. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
TUE, NEARSHORE SEAS REMAIN ONLY AROUND 1-2 FT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RMM
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