923
FXUS61 KAKQ 230701
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING (LIGHT) RAIN ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TODAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST THOUGH A VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE VIRGINIA BEACH/OUTER BANKS VICINITY. HAVE A
VERY THIN STRIPE OF 20% POPS IN THIS AREA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES,
EXPECTING IT TO BE QUITE WARM DUE TO A MODEST DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S W TO UPPER 80S E. DEW POINTS
SHOULD ALSO DROP FROM W TO E AND LIKELY INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND, BUT STILL IN THE 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NW MONDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SE TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY. WX WISE, SIMILARLY BENIGN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY/DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND MONDAY AFTERNOON; OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD ANOTHER WETTER PERIOD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST "ACTIVE" DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY AREAWIDE. DAILY
CONVECTION CHANCES LINGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E/SE, FRIDAY AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS (W/ A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS) ARE CLEARING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A ~1 HR PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
AT SBY FROM THESE SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME W 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY-MID WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. A TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE CHES. BAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS, WHICH ARE NOW MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, THE
WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SW 10-15KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SEAS ARE 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE WIND
DIMINISHES TO W 5-10KT BY THIS AFTN, AND A SEA-BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO NW, BEFORE BECOMING
W/SW WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10KT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO N
~10KT, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN S/SE FLOW BY MIDWEEK TRENDING TO S/SW FLOW BY LATE WEEK,
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 15KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2FT TO
OCCASIONALLY 3FT THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
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