167
FXUS61 KAKQ 231625
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE MARINE DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING (LIGHT) RAIN ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TODAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST THOUGH A VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE VIRGINIA BEACH/OUTER BANKS VICINITY. HAVE A
VERY THIN STRIPE OF 20% POPS IN THIS AREA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES,
EXPECTING IT TO BE QUITE WARM DUE TO A MODEST DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S W TO UPPER 80S E. DEW POINTS
SHOULD ALSO DROP FROM W TO E AND LIKELY INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND, BUT STILL IN THE 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NW MONDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SE TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY. WX WISE, SIMILARLY BENIGN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY/DEW POINTS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND MONDAY AFTERNOON; OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD ANOTHER WETTER PERIOD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST "ACTIVE" DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY AREAWIDE. DAILY
CONVECTION CHANCES LINGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E/SE, FRIDAY AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR AFTER 12-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME W 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY-MID WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 1225 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A BRIEF SE SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTEAD, NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL NOTE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR NW WINDS AFTER ~2 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
CONTINUING. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS MON NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N 10-15 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUE AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS (5-10 KT). THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS SE WINDS INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING WINDS REMAINING SUB-
SCA. OTHERWISE, WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (OCCASIONALLY 1-2 FT)
AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET (OCCASIONALLY 2-3 FT) CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WAVES, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH WED. WILL NOTE THAT LONG PERIOD SWELL
OF 10-12 SECONDS CONTINUES THROUGH WED WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME RIP CURRENTS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NEARSHORE
WAVES, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN
BELOW MODERATE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RMM
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