135
FXUS61 KAKQ 232316
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS TODAY.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS TODAY.
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH VALUES IN THE 50S JUST TO
THE WEST. COASTAL AREAS ARE STILL A TAD MORE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S, BUT THAT'S AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO RECENT
WEEKS. THE DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 80S ALL ADD UP FOR A GORGEOUS LATE AUGUST DAY. IF THE FORECASTED
SEABREEZE CAN GET GOING, IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. THE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH
REMAINING IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE SOMETIME
WED/THURS AND THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS BACK TO THE SW ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 WED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE HUMIDITY RETURNS AS WELL AS DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW, THURS LOOKS LIKE
THE DAY FOR MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS WHEN ANOTHER FRONT COMES
THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SW 5-10 KT ON MONDAY. FEW/SCT CU
LIKELY DEVELOP AS HEATING/MIXING GET UNDERWAY MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 1225 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A BRIEF SE SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTEAD, NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL NOTE THAT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR NW WINDS AFTER ~2 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
CONTINUING. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS MON NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N 10-15 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUE AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS (5-10 KT). THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS SE WINDS INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING WINDS REMAINING SUB-
SCA. OTHERWISE, WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (OCCASIONALLY 1-2 FT)
AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET (OCCASIONALLY 2-3 FT) CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WAVES, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH WED. WILL NOTE THAT LONG PERIOD SWELL
OF 10-12 SECONDS CONTINUES THROUGH WED WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME RIP CURRENTS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT NEARSHORE
WAVES, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN
BELOW MODERATE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM
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