802
FXUS61 KAKQ 031859
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-FULL DISCUSSION UPDATE. STORM CHANCES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY
TODAY, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
(SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE).
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
105F ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
2) A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS). MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY (MAINLY SW). SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL (ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY).
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
105F ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS SLOWLY LIFTED NORTH AND LINGERS NEAR OUR
NORTHERN CWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER HEIGHTS HAVE SLOWLY RISEN
WITH A 594DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED FROM TN TO THE CAROLINAS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MD/NC BEACHES. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED, DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAVE ALLOWED MACH OF THE AREA TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (ASIDE FROM THE EASTERN SHORE). REGARDLESS, WILL
LET THE CURRENT ADVISORIES RUN UNTIL 8 PM. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOCALLY UPPER 90S AND LOWER-MID
70S DEW PTS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO PEAK IN
THE 105-109F RANGE ACROSS THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE
ISSUED ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES FROM 11 AM-8 PM FROM I-95
EAST AND ROUGHLY I-64 SOUTH.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH, AND LOWER DEW PTS IN THE PIEDMONT MAY LIMIT
HEAT INDICES TO THE LOW 100S. SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVISORIES ATTM
FOR THESE AREA. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME THIS WEEKEND WITH NO
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS). MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY (MAINLY SW). SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL (ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY).
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR NW
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE AREA THROUGH 4 PM AS
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME CIN/SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND THE BEST
FORCING/UPPER FLOW IS STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE STORMS TO
OUR NORTH WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL VA THIS
EVENING, WITH POPS GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN 30% THROUGH 8 PM.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN HERE, THEY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR N AND NE COUNTIES AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850MB JET STRENGTHENS SOME, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR THIS FROM 10 PM-3 AM (BEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT ARE
ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE).
THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF FORCING, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR
NORTH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BUT REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH.
ALOFT, NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY, AND DRY MID
LEVELS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. WITH
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT, SCATTERED TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF
STRONG HEATING/INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, CONTINUE TO THINK
THAT THERE IS A LEGITIMATE SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE (50KT+) WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (AND DAMAGING WINDS) AS
WELL. THE LACK OF LLVL SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS BETWEEN 4-10 PM
WITH THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE RISK FOR STORMS (AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER) SATURDAY IS
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SITUATED DURING PEAK HEATING. THE
12Z/03 MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, AND WHILE
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SAT
AFTN...THE MAIN PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, IT APPEARS AS IF SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-64. THERE
SEVERE WX RISK ON SATURDAY IS LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA). STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH
ON FRI/SAT FOR NO WORSE THAN A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
COOLER/DRIER WX WITH ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AFTER THAT (W/ MAINLY DRY WX).
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN
CUMULUS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
NOW-21Z. LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
LIKELY WON'T REACH THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR RIC/SBY AND DID NOT MENTION
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN SE VA/NE NC AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. DRY/VFR
FRIDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTN. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI AFTN AND CONTINUE FRI
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
OF 50 KT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES ARE NEAR THE COAST WITH MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SW OF RIC. MAINLY DRY/VFR SUNDAY-MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST WITH NE FLOW.
MARINE
AS OF 210 AM EDT THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS ~15 KNOTS AT TIMES
IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ~20 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY THEN
NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (~5 KNOTS OR LESS) AND ARE OUT OF
THE S TO SE. SEAS AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET, WHILE WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AVERAGE AROUND 1 FOOT.
TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN, LEADING TO AN INCREASING S TO SW
WIND. BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SW WINDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG PRESSURE PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN OVER WARMER WATERS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY. NE WINDS BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. CALMER, MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS LOOK
TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP TODAY, BECOMING
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY, BEFORE BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVES
IN THE BAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 FEET, BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
NO RECORDS WERE SET ON WEDNESDAY, 9/2 AT ANY OF THE CLIMATE SITES.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY (THURSDAY, 9/3) AT NORFOLK,
RICHMOND, AND ELIZABETH CITY.
RICHMOND: RECORD HIGH:
THU (9/3) 99/1984
FRI (9/4) 98/2023
NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH:
THU (9/3) 97/1977
FRI (9/4) 96/1985
SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH:
THU (9/3) 99/1930
FRI (9/4) 95/1944
ELIZABETH CITY: RECORD HIGH:
THU (9/3) 97/2020
FRI (9/4) 98/1944
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-528>531.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ080>090-092-
097-098-511>520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AJB
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