455
FXUS61 KAKQ 040634
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
234 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 2 AM,
WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHEAST MD AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
105F ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
3) A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS). MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY (MAINLY SW). SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL (ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY).
DISCUSSION
AS OF 915 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 2 AM, WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHEAST MD AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NECK.
AN MCS IS CONGEALING ACROSS SW/S-CENTRAL PA AND THE MD PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING AND TRACKING ESE, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. MAX MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WERE ~7.3C/KM ON THE 00Z LWX SOUNDING WITH SBCAPE OF
4978 J/KG AND 30KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK AND SE MD. THE LATEST
TRENDS FROM THE HRRR BRING THE MCS ESE AND MERGE IT WITH SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 04Z, SO THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LATE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
LINGER. HOWEVER, THE MCS ACTIVITY MAY NOT PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL
AFTER 06Z, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS AFTER 06Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105F ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS SLOWLY LIFTED NORTH AND LINGERS NEAR OUR
NORTHERN CWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER HEIGHTS HAVE SLOWLY RISEN
WITH A 594DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED FROM TN TO THE CAROLINAS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MD/NC BEACHES. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED, DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAVE ALLOWED MACH OF THE AREA TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (ASIDE FROM THE EASTERN SHORE). REGARDLESS, WILL
LET THE CURRENT ADVISORIES RUN UNTIL 8 PM. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOCALLY UPPER 90S AND LOWER-MID
70S DEW PTS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO PEAK IN
THE 105-109F RANGE ACROSS THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE
ISSUED ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES FROM 11 AM-8 PM FROM I-95
EAST AND ROUGHLY I-64 SOUTH.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH, AND LOWER DEW PTS IN THE PIEDMONT MAY LIMIT
HEAT INDICES TO THE LOW 100S. SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVISORIES ATTM
FOR THESE AREA. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME THIS WEEKEND WITH NO
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS). MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES CONTINUING ON SATURDAY (MAINLY SW). SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL (ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY).
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR NW
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE AREA THROUGH 4 PM AS
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME CIN/SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND THE BEST
FORCING/UPPER FLOW IS STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE STORMS TO
OUR NORTH WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL VA THIS
EVENING, WITH POPS GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN 30% THROUGH 8 PM.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN HERE, THEY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR N AND NE COUNTIES AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850MB JET STRENGTHENS SOME, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR THIS FROM 10 PM-3 AM (BEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT ARE
ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE).
THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF FORCING, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR
NORTH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BUT REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH.
ALOFT, NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY, AND DRY MID
LEVELS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. WITH
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT, SCATTERED TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF
STRONG HEATING/INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, CONTINUE TO THINK
THAT THERE IS A LEGITIMATE SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE (50KT+) WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (AND DAMAGING WINDS) AS
WELL. THE LACK OF LLVL SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS BETWEEN 4-10 PM
WITH THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE RISK FOR STORMS (AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER) SATURDAY IS
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SITUATED DURING PEAK HEATING. THE
12Z/03 MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, AND WHILE
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SAT
AFTN...THE MAIN PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, IT APPEARS AS IF SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-64. THERE
SEVERE WX RISK ON SATURDAY IS LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA). STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH
ON FRI/SAT FOR NO WORSE THAN A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
COOLER/DRIER WX WITH ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AFTER THAT (W/ MAINLY DRY WX).
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR RIC AND SOUTH, WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING AT SBY CURRENTLY DUE TO TS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THESE TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THEM MOVING OUT
AFTER 10Z WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES TO START THE DAY. W/NW
WINDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 04/19Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT COVERAGE IS LOW. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE A PROB30 IN FOR ECG
AFTER 20Z SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FURTHER SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM +RA WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS S AND SW OF RIC. MAINLY DRY/VFR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH NE FLOW.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
TURNING WINDS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANCES COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SEAS OF 2-3FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY
OF 1-2FT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND START TO TURN WINDS NORTHERLY. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO
10-15KT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING 15-20KT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 5-6FT FOR THE
SOUTH, WITH THE HIGHER SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 3FT AS WELL. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER
THIS FOR PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MORE BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS AND
SEAS BOTH SUBSIDE.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL BEACHES.
RIP RISK BECOMES MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES
BUILD.
CLIMATE
NO RECORDS WERE SET ON THURSDAY, 9/3 AT ANY OF THE CLIMATE
SITES. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED TODAY (FRIDAY, 9/4) AT A
FEW SITES.
RICHMOND: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 98/2023
NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 96/1985
SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 95/1944
ELIZABETH CITY: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 98/1944
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ080>090-092-097-098-511>520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/JKP
MARINE...LKB/JKP
CLIMATE...AJB/JKP
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