698
FXUS61 KAKQ 041914
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
COMMONWEALTH OF VA AND NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
2) ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
3) BELOW TO AROUND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF HEAT UP BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 313 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
THE AREA. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE
PA/MD BORDER. SOUTH OF THE FRONT A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ACROSS VA
AND NC AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND LOW
TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS PRIMED. RECENT MESO-ANALYSIS IS SHOWING STRONG DCAPE (1200-
1400J/KG) IN PLACE AND BULK-SHEAR OF AROUND 30-40KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUITABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 60-70MPH+
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG DCAPE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, SEVERE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE A STRONGER AND OR MORE DISCRETE STORM
GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE. AS OF 230PM THERE ARE MULTIPLE AREAS OF
INTEREST FOR DEVELOPING STORMS. THE FIRST PLACE IS ACROSS SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAYS FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS.
CUMULUS FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED HERE IN THE PAST HOUR AND
RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON RADAR. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE PRIMED ATM THEY CAN POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE. THE SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. BASED ON THE ATM IN PLACE IF THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INITIALLY DISCRETE
STORMS THEN THE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF AN MCS THIS EVENING. WILL
NOTE THERE REMAINS A QUESTION OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS
MCS. HOWEVER, BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESO-ANALYSIS THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE RECOVERING AND BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH ALL OF THIS
BEING SAID A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TOMORROWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS IT HEAVILY DEPENDS ON WHAT
HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROUGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA, PUSHING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, EXACT PLACEMENT IS YET UNKNOWN. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP INDICATE WHERE THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
RESIDE. AS OF THIS UPDATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED. THE MAIN RISK
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND, SMALL TO SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. OUTSIDE OF THE STORM THREAT, THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WAVE WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... BELOW TO AROUND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF HEAT UP BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE HELPING TO KEEP
NW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
SIT OVER NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING NE WINDS TOP PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AROUND SEASONABLE TO PERHAPS A
TAD BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. THEN BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLES
HINT ON AN ADDITIONAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO PLACE FAVORING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES,
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE THE LAST FAVORABLE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEFORE A DRIER PATTERN RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS THIS THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED
ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NE NC. ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE
POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS ECG AT THIS TIME AND A TEMPO
HAS BEEN ADDED. PROB30S REMAIN IN FOR ORF AND PHF DUE TO LESS
CONFIDENCE AND THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH. ELSE, WHERE PROB30S
HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE TERMINALS AS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
LOOK POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS S AND SW OF RIC. MAINLY DRY/VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST WITH NE FLOW.
MARINE
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TURNING
WINDS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS).
WINDS ARE VARIABLE AOB 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME SW-W
TONIGHT (AND REMAIN SUB-SCA). SEAS ARE 2-3 FT, WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.
THE MAIN NEAR TERM MARINE HAZARD IS SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE TSTMS FROM NOW-THIS EVENING. A FEW SMWS ARE LIKELY, WITH
GUSTS OF 50+ KT POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS ACROSS THE
SE VA/NE NC WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND START TO TURN WINDS NORTHERLY. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO
10-15 KT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
A STRONGER PUSH OF CAA ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. AS A
RESULT, NE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (HIGHEST SOUTH)
DURING THE DAY WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AM
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE NORTH AND 5-6 FT FOR THE SOUTH. WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT AS WELL. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
COVER THIS FOR PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MORE BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS AND
SEAS BOTH SUBSIDE.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK ON SATURDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. RIP
RISK BECOMES MODERATE ON SUNDAY AND HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BUILD.
CLIMATE
NO RECORDS WERE SET ON THURSDAY, 9/3 AT ANY OF THE CLIMATE
SITES. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED TODAY (FRIDAY, 9/4) AT A
FEW SITES.
RICHMOND: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 98/2023
NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 96/1985
SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 95/1944
ELIZABETH CITY: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 98/1944
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-061-
065>069-079>090-092-097-098-511>520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...ERI/JKP
CLIMATE...AJB/JKP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page