292
FXUS61 KAKQ 052233
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT HAS DECREASED TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS VIRGINIA, BUT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NE NC THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH TONIGHT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOME SINCE THIS MORNING.
2) RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A BRIEF WARMUP BY WED/THU.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
VIRGINIA, BUT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NE NC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH
TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOME SINCE THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED DUE TO 2 FACTORS: THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SE VIRGINIA EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC, AND COULD CLIP FAR SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BERTIE TO CURRITUCK COUNTIES (ALONG THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT. WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RIC METRO TO HAMPTON ROADS, SEVERE WX IS NOT LIKELY THOUGH CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IF SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER
URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WANES (THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA).
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DECREASE SUN (15-40% POPS) WITH MOST CONVECTION
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (OR
REMAINING SOUTH ALTOGETHER). BEYOND SUN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC REGARDING THIS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. TSTMS HAVE EXITED RIC AND WILL
IMPACT PHF/ORF BETWEEN NOW-19Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 FOR
ECG LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS. AFTER STORMS END THIS EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN THE RAIN-COOLED
AIR, LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOWEST CIGS SW OF RIC. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT-SUN AM AT
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN NE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH
NE FLOW.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AND ARE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN BENIGN FOR
NOW WITH 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER NEW
ENGLAND, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SAME AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL LIKELY COME BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 15KT WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUSTS IN THE BAY MAY HOVER NEAR 20 KT BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION FOR A PROLONGED SCA. WHILE ACROSS THE
OCEAN GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 20-25KT. WHILE SIMILAR TO THE BAY GUSTS
OVER THE OCEAN ARE LIKELY NOT TO BE THE CULPRIT FOR LIKELY SCA. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECASTED TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH PERHAPS SOME 6FT SEAS IN THE VA
NC NEARSHORE WATERS BY MONDAY. WHILE IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO 6-7FT WITH POSSIBLE 8FT SEAS OFF NC. THESE ELEVATED
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BRING SCA BACK TO THE OCEAN WATERS. BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR ALL BEACHES. RIP RISK
BECOMES MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BUILD, THEN
HIGH FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES ON MONDAY AND MODERATE PERSISTING FOR THE
NORTH.
COASTAL FLOODING....
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE OUT
OF THE NE CAUSING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NUISANCE
TO LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS TIDEWATER AND ALONG THE
BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE. THE FAVORABLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR
THE POSSIBLE NUISANCE TO LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR IS
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET
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