017
FXUS61 KAKQ 060555
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT. UPDATED DISCUSSIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WX OR FLOODING IS LOW.
2) RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP BY WED/THU.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 900 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WX OR FLOODING IS LOW.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT NOW GENERALLY S OF
THE REGION, WITH EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NC. THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT THEY ARE SPOTTY AND POPS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 20-30% OR
LESS. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT,
WITH THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORING THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F, WITH
SOME MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND LOCALLY STAYING IN THE LOWER
70S NEAR THE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE
FAIRLY LOW SUN (15-35% POPS) WITH MOST CONVECTION LIKELY CONFINED
TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (OR REMAINING SOUTH ALTOGETHER).
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF WARMUP BY WED/THU.
BEYOND SUN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC REGARDING THIS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A MIXTURE OF SCT TO BKN STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM N TO S THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
BE A MIXTURE OF IFR TO VFR WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN IFR (POTENTIALLY LIFR) CIGS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UP TO
I-95 EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRATUS ON SATELLITE,
THINK IFR STRATUS IS FAVORED OVER IFR VIS DUE TO FOG. AS SUCH, RIC
MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF BOTH AN IFR STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY FOG LAYER.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT IFR
CONDITIONS REACH RIC. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS AT
RIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE
UNCERTAINTY. EAST OF I-95, ONLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED. GIVEN PHF
REPORTING FOG, HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE TAF FOR THAT TERMINAL.
ELSEWHERE, THINK THE FOG REMAINS FARTHER INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
FOG AND IFR STRATUS LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
(~4500-6000 FT CIGS) EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL 17-18Z. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY SOUTH OF US-460. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS REACHING ECG SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME
NE 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH NE
FLOW MON OR TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AND ARE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN BENIGN FOR
NOW WITH 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER NEW
ENGLAND, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SAME AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL LIKELY COME BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 15KT WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUSTS IN THE BAY MAY HOVER NEAR 20 KT BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION FOR A PROLONGED SCA. WHILE ACROSS THE
OCEAN GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 20-25KT. WHILE SIMILAR TO THE BAY GUSTS
OVER THE OCEAN ARE LIKELY NOT TO BE THE CULPRIT FOR LIKELY SCA. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECASTED TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH PERHAPS SOME 6FT SEAS IN THE VA
NC NEARSHORE WATERS BY MONDAY. WHILE IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO 6-7FT WITH POSSIBLE 8FT SEAS OFF NC. THESE ELEVATED
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BRING SCA BACK TO THE OCEAN WATERS. BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR ALL BEACHES. RIP RISK
BECOMES MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BUILD, THEN
HIGH FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES ON MONDAY AND MODERATE PERSISTING FOR THE
NORTH.
COASTAL FLOODING....
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE OUT
OF THE NE CAUSING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NUISANCE
TO LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS TIDEWATER AND ALONG THE
BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE. THE FAVORABLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR
THE POSSIBLE NUISANCE TO LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR IS
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET
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