505
FXUS61 KAKQ 060901
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
501 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES HAS BEEN CHANGED
FROM MODERATE TO LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW-END CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
2) MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, THEN WARMING
UP FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW-END CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT
SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM BRUNSWICK COUNTY TO AMHERST COUNTY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LIGHTNING
HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE SHOWERS AND THEY ARE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE IN RAINFALL INTENSITY AT THIS HOUR. SOME REPORTING SITES IN
PRINCE EDWARD, CUMBERLAND AND LUNENBURG COUNTIES HAVE RECORDED 0.05-
0.25" OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS OFF AND ON
SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT THERE IS NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS STICK AROUND; CURRENTLY
FORECASTING AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND LOW TO
MID 80S TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY, MAKING FOR A MUCH NICER DAY THAN WHAT WE'VE BEEN DEALING
WITH LATELY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MAKE YOU WANT TO OPEN THE WINDOWS AS LOWER 60S ARE IN THE
FORECAST. COOLER SPOTS IN THE NW COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK,
THEN WARMING UP FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY
ALLOWING THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY, HOWEVER, HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES HOLD ONTO A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WOULDN'T ALLOW THAT TO AFFECT ANY HOLIDAY PLANS THOUGH SINCE
THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY
TOWARDS THE COAST, ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN NC BEACHES. IF YOU'RE RING IN LABOR DAY AT THE BEACH,
PLEASE BE MINDFUL THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND NEARSHORE WAVES
BUILD.TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
INLAND WITH MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST, MAKING FOR A BELOW
NORMAL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
80S PERSISTING. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, HELPING KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. BY WEDNESDAY, OUR
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE OFFSHORE AS A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY . HERE LOCALLY, THE
REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES AS HIGHS
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL START
TO CREEP BACK AS WELL, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE OPPRESSIVE
LEVELS WE SAW AT THE END OF LAST WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE START OF THURSDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO MAKE THEIR
RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS
OF NOW, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THURSDAY BEING OUR HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S (WARMEST
ACROSS THE S/SW). HOPEFULLY THE COLD FRONT CAN KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 80S TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A MIXTURE OF SCT TO BKN STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM N TO S THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
BE A MIXTURE OF IFR TO VFR WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN IFR (POTENTIALLY LIFR) CIGS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UP TO
I-95 EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRATUS ON SATELLITE,
THINK IFR STRATUS IS FAVORED OVER IFR VIS DUE TO FOG. AS SUCH, RIC
MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF BOTH AN IFR STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY FOG LAYER.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT IFR
CONDITIONS REACH RIC. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS AT
RIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE
UNCERTAINTY. EAST OF I-95, ONLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED. GIVEN PHF
REPORTING FOG, HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE TAF FOR THAT TERMINAL.
ELSEWHERE, THINK THE FOG REMAINS FARTHER INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
FOG AND IFR STRATUS LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
(~4500-6000 FT CIGS) EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL 17-18Z. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY SOUTH OF US-460. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS REACHING ECG SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME
NE 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH NE
FLOW MON OR TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 500 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO MONDAY. SCAS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE WED INTO THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA.
WINDS WERE NE 5-10 KT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FOR GRADUALLY
INCREASING NE WINDS TODAY INTO MON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ON MON ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER TODAY, EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE LOWER CHES
BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS MON. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUB-
SCA WINDS, THE ARW AND FV3 SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THESE SAME MODELS SHOW STRONGER 15-20 KT WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND MON. AS SUCH, WHILE THIS IS THE HIGH-END SCENARIO, A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CURRITUCK SOUND MON, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
SCAS THERE AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING NE WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD FROM 2-
3 FT TODAY TO 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
WATERS) TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT MON NIGHT AND 2-3
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED (4AM-7PM MON FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER AND 1AM-
10PM MON FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS).
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH A PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY WED. BY WED AFTERNOON, S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM SECTOR FROM A ~992MB SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE SE COAST. S WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY WED EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SW
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WINDS EVEN HIGHER
(20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT). WILL NOTE THAT WIND PROBS FOR 18
KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE AROUND 100% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS WITH 50-90% PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND
AROUND 100% PROBS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH THU WITH ONLY A WEAK CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
NIGHT.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY AND
MODERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES. GIVEN THE STRONGER NE WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS ON MON, THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES. BY
TUE, THE RIP CURRENT RISK DECREASES TO LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES AND MODERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
COASTAL FLOODING....
NE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRIMARILY NUISANCE FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC-FACING
BEACHES OF THE EASTERN SHORE WITH THE HIGHER HIGH TIDES (LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE (HIGHEST CHANCE AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
BAYFORD). AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE AS WELL, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THOSE AT THIS
TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...JKP
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RMM
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