040
FXUS61 KAKQ 062333
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY LABOR DAY.
2) HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY LABOR DAY.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING IN TOWARD THE AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THE PLEASANT WX THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPS AROUND 80F AND DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S.
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD EXIT IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
MORNING ARE NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S), BUT IS MUCH COOLER
THAN IT HAS BEEN GIVEN THE HEAT WE EXPERIENCED LATE LAST WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON LABOR DAY WITH LOW-MID 80S, CONTINUED
LOWER HUMIDITY, AND MOSTLY DRY WX. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER NEAR THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY TOWARDS THE COAST, ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND
SOUTH INTO THE NE NC BEACHES. NOTE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT TOMORROW AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND
NEARSHORE WAVES BUILD. A BIT COOLER MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH LOCALIZED
MID 50S POSSIBLE. THE WIND LIGHTENS UP ON TUE AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER BUT NOT TOO HUMID WITH
MID TO LOCALLY UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE LOCALLY, THE REPOSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP AS
WELL, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS WE SAW AT THE
END OF LAST WEEK. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH ON THURSDAY,
AND WILL BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW TO LOCALLY
MID 90S POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE START OF
THURSDAY, BUT SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES INCREASE NORTH OF I-64 THURSDAY
AFTN/EVENING. DIURNAL WEAKENING OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX THOUGH COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM (MAINLY ON THURSDAY). TEMPS DROP
BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT SBY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR
NOW. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND POTENTIALLY INCLUDE AT
THE 06Z TAF CYCLE IF THE SIGNAL IS STILL THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NE TOMOR, BECOMING E-NE TOMORROW AND INCREASING TO 8-12
KTS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH NE
FLOW MON OR TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE WED INTO THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LEADING TO NNE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH HAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 10 TO
15KT. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WINDS, SEAS HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED BUT STILL REMAIN LOW AROUND 1-2FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 2-3
FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE NE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND SURGE OF DRIER AIR MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT DURING THIS
TIME WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20KT GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ELEVATED SITES AND OCEAN. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SEAS. WITH
THIS HIGH MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING THESE NE WINDS TO PERSIST
IT BECOMES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED SEAS. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY WITH PERHAPS 3
TO EVEN 4 FT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY AND MOUTH OF THE BAY ZONES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY FOR 4FT SEAS. ACROSS THE OCEAN, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RISE 3-4 FT
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND 4-6 FT SOUTH. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WAVE FORECAST, SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW FOR THE OCEAN ZONES SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES. FOR THE 20-60 NM ZONES, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 5-7 FT
CAUSING ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS. BY LATE MONDAY, THE ELEVATED
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THEN
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD AT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE
THREAT FOR ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
MODERATE RIP RISK CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIODS REMAIN FAVORABLE. WHILE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES THE RISK REMAINS LOW. FOR TOMORROW, HIGH RISK OF RIPS
IS LIKELY DUE TO 4-5FT WAVES. EVEN THOUGH THE PERIODS ARE SHORT WITH
THE HEIGHT IN WAVES IT WILL LIKELY C CAUSE DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH PERIODS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH 3FT SEAS FOR A LONGSHORE CURRENT TO OCCUR. THEREFORE
THEY REMAIN IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT.
COASTAL FLOODING....
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE NE CAUSING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NUISANCE TO LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS TIDEWATER AND ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE. TIDES
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVER PERFORMING ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAY. HOWEVER, NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY UPGRADES TO
ADVISORIES. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE AS
WELL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THOSE AT THIS
TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/JKP
AVIATION...ERI/NB
MARINE...HET
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