599
FXUS61 KAKQ 070557
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY LABOR DAY.
2) HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 145 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY.
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NECK AND MIDDLE PENINSULA. THE ARW SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION THE BEST AND SHOWS A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. AS SUCH,
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPS AS OF 140 AM RANGED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S
FOR MOST AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TODAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST BY SUNRISE (AROUND 70F ALONG THE COAST). A
FEW INLAND LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND
CONTINUED LOWER HUMIDITY. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME A
BIT BREEZY TOWARDS THE COAST, ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH
INTO THE NE NC BEACHES. WILL NOTE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS
HIGH TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BEACHES GIVEN INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AND BUILDING NEARSHORE WAVES. MON NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD, ALLOWING
FOR A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH LOCALIZED MID 50S POSSIBLE. THE WIND
LIGHTENS UP ON TUE AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WARMER BUT NOT TOO HUMID WITH MID TO LOCALLY UPPER
80S EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE LOCALLY, THE REPOSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP AS
WELL, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE OPPRESSIVE LEVELS WE SAW AT THE
END OF LAST WEEK. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH ON THURSDAY,
AND WILL BE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW TO LOCALLY
MID 90S POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE START OF
THURSDAY, BUT SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES INCREASE NORTH OF I-64 THURSDAY
AFTN/EVENING. DIURNAL WEAKENING OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX THOUGH COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM (MAINLY ON THURSDAY). TEMPS DROP
BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT MONDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK, MIDDLE PENINSULA, AND THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST. AS SUCH (AND WITH POPS ONLY
AROUND 15%) HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE SBY TAF
FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS, SCT STRATUS AND CU
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME REGION, SPREADING
WEST TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CIGS
LIKELY REMAIN VFR (4000-6000FT CIGS). CLOUDS LIKELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME NE 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ECG,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVES
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE WED INTO THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LEADING TO NNE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH HAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 10 TO
15KT. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WINDS, SEAS HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED BUT STILL REMAIN LOW AROUND 1-2FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 2-3
FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE NE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND SURGE OF DRIER AIR MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT DURING THIS
TIME WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20KT GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ELEVATED SITES AND OCEAN. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SEAS. WITH
THIS HIGH MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING THESE NE WINDS TO PERSIST
IT BECOMES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED SEAS. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY WITH PERHAPS 3
TO EVEN 4 FT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY AND MOUTH OF THE BAY ZONES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY FOR 4FT SEAS. ACROSS THE OCEAN, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RISE 3-4 FT
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND 4-6 FT SOUTH. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WAVE FORECAST, SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW FOR THE OCEAN ZONES SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES. FOR THE 20-60 NM ZONES, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 5-7 FT
CAUSING ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS. BY LATE MONDAY, THE ELEVATED
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THEN
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD AT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE
THREAT FOR ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
MODERATE RIP RISK CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE DIRECTION AND PERIODS REMAIN FAVORABLE. WHILE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES THE RISK REMAINS LOW. FOR TOMORROW, HIGH RISK OF RIPS
IS LIKELY DUE TO 4-5FT WAVES. EVEN THOUGH THE PERIODS ARE SHORT WITH
THE HEIGHT IN WAVES IT WILL LIKELY C CAUSE DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH PERIODS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH 3FT SEAS FOR A LONGSHORE CURRENT TO OCCUR. THEREFORE
THEY REMAIN IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT.
COASTAL FLOODING....
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE NE CAUSING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NUISANCE TO LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS TIDEWATER AND ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE. TIDES
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVER PERFORMING ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAY. HOWEVER, NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY UPGRADES TO
ADVISORIES. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE AS
WELL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THOSE AT THIS
TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/JKP/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET
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