169
FXUS61 KAKQ 070701
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, LOWERED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY.
2) HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY.
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE AREA. THE ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION THE BEST AND
SHOWS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE
REGIONS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPS AS OF 230 AM RANGED FROM
THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST BY SUNRISE (AROUND 70F ALONG THE COAST). A
FEW INLAND LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND
CONTINUED LOWER HUMIDITY. E/NE WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY TOWARDS
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH INTO NE NC WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL NOTE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGH
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BEACHES GIVEN INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND
BUILDING NEARSHORE WAVES. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED INLAND,
WITH LOCALIZED MID 50S POSSIBLE. THE WIND LIGHTENS UP ON TUE GIVEN
THE HIGH OVERHEAD. THE HIGH GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
LOWER HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
BY WED, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A FEW
DEGREES WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WED
AND LOWER 90S THU. WILL NOTE THAT LOCALLY MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE THU.
MEANWHILE, S/SW WINDS INCREASE WED INTO THU WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH POSSIBLE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THU. THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION ON THU BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA THU EVENING.
GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING (~20% POPS SOUTH AND
30-50% NORTH). A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THE PARENT LOW IS AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW HIGH DEW POINTS (AND INSTABILITY) ULTIMATELY
GET. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD FRONT GETS THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, CAA WILL BE
LACKING SO TEMPS ONLY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRI AND SAT WITH LOWER
90S POTENTIALLY RETURNING BY SUN AND MON NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT MONDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK, MIDDLE PENINSULA, AND THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST. AS SUCH (AND WITH POPS ONLY
AROUND 15%) HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE SBY TAF
FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS, SCT STRATUS AND CU
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME REGION, SPREADING
WEST TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CIGS
LIKELY REMAIN VFR (4000-6000FT CIGS). CLOUDS LIKELY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME NE 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ECG,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVES
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE LATER WED INTO THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MI AND EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE E OR ENE 5-10 KT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIND
DIRECTION HAS ALSO AVERAGED MORE EAST THAN NORTHEAST WHICH HAS KEPT
SEAS FROM RISING AS RAPIDLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE ONGOING SCA HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN THE NEARSHORE
ZONES HAS DECREASED. ACCORDINGLY, HAVE SLOWED THE INCREASE IN SEAS
BY A FEW HOURS. HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY EARLY
EVENING. IF CURRENT TRENDS IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING, WILL LIKELY NEED TO REEVALUATE THE
EXTENT/DURATION OF SCAS. FARTHER OFFSHORE, SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES (HIGHEST S FARTHER S AND
SE). WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ~10 KT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/LOWER JAMES AS
WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES WILL ALSO HAVE A MODERATE RIP RISK ON TUESDAY AS SWELL
ENERGY SLOWLY SUBSIDES.
COASTAL FLOODING....
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. THE RESULTING ENE TO NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TIDAL
ANOMALIES FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BAY SIDE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SHORE AS WELL AS LOCATIONS ALONG OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
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