910
FXUS61 KAKQ 080013
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
813 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AND COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE POTOMAC RIVER.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
2) HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BY HOTTEST BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
AND PUSHING SE INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ALOFT, AN UPPER
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO ATLANTIC CANADA,
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LAGGING BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S
INLAND. THE WIND IS GENERALLY E TO NE 5-10 MPH, AND LOCALLY
10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK GIVEN RATHER FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED INLAND, WITH LOCALIZED MID 50S POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND NUDGES OFFSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. NOT AS BREEZY WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE REGION. A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S INLAND, WITH AROUND 80F/LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
CONTINUED PLEASANT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BY HOTTEST BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH INCREASING SW FLOW, THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RECOVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND, WITH MID
80S AT THE COAST. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND, WITH
LOCALIZED MID 90S POSSIBLE. MORE HUMID BY THURSDAY AS DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F. A S/SW WIND INCREASES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE
THURSDAY HENCE THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER
DEWPOINTS.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE
SLOWER TO SETTLE INTO OUR REGION AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, AND POTENTIALLY DOES NOT SETTLE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THIS, ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE SLOWER TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THE LATEST NBM HAS 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE FAR N THURSDAY
AFTN, AND 30-50% ACROSS THE N THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THE PARENT LOW IS, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
HIGH DEW POINTS (AND INSTABILITY) ULTIMATELY GET, AND TIMING. A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD FRONT GETS BY EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, CAA WILL BE LACKING SO TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S POTENTIALLY
RETURNING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTING. THIS BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
SCT CU INLAND, NUT THE SKY WILL BECOME MAINLY SKC OTHER THAN
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BETWEEN 06-12Z, BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED THIS IN ANY OF THE TAFS. ON TUESDAY, FEW-SCT CU WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME CALM TO VERY LIGHT OUT TO THE E/NE TONIGHT, AND THEN S
5-10KT INLAND AND E 5-10KT ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MOST OF THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES
LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS (HIGHEST CHC S).
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE LATER WED INTO THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN PA. WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE N TO NE AROUND
10KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15KT. SEAS HAVE SLIGHTLY
UNDERPERFORMED TODAY WITH WAVES THIS AFTERNOON BEING AROUND 2FT
IN THE BAY AND 3-4FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THESE SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 5FT THE SCA HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE CANCELED EARLY.
THE SEAS EVEN FURTHER IN THE 20-60NM HAVE UNDERPERFORMED AND ARE
HOVERING AROUND 4-5FT WITH PERHAPS SOME 6FT WAVES IN THE MIX.
WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE OFFSHORE BY LATE TUESDAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ~10 KT. LOOKING AHEAD IN THE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME , THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY/LOWER JAMES AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MODERATE RISK OF RIPS ON TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES, WITH A
LOW RISK TO THE NORTH AS SWELL ENERGY SLOWLY SUBSIDES.
COASTAL FLOODING....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN PA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
BE MORE OUT OF THE NE CAUSING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NUISANCE
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN
SHORE. TIDES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY OVER PERFORMING ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY LIKELY DUE TO WATER UNABLE TO LEAVE
THE BAY. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND VA
EASTERN SHORE. WILL NOTE THAT SOME COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER COULD EXPERIENCE NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH TO ISSUE A STATEMENT. WHILE
ACROSS THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND FOR THE COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE POTOMAC RIVER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED WHERE UP TO ONE FOOT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN
LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR SHORELINES AND TIDAL WATERWAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ075-077-
078.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...HET/RHR
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