963
FXUS61 KAKQ 082349
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
749 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE WIND IS LIGHT,
GENERALLY 5-10 MPH, AND ENE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH, AND SSW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE SURFACE HIGH
VERY SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, BUT LAGS BACK INTO
S-CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. THEREFORE, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F WITH
A CALM TO LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY. FARTHER N, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 60-65F AS VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES N OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING. A A RESULT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15-18C SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F INLAND, WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMES FURTHER SUPPRESSED THURSDAY AS MORE ROBUST TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER ON/QB, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LEGACY 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SCHEMES FROM THE NAM/ECMWF
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S, WITH MID/UPPER
90S FROM THE GFS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO LOCALLY
MID 90S. DEWPOINTS RISE, BUT GENERALLY INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70F. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
AREA AS SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RRFS) HAVE SOME CONVECTION TRACKING
OFF THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SW WIND
OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT LIKELY SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE N
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, AND THE NAM
AND RRFS ARE OUTLIERS SUGGESTING EARLIER CONVECTION. THERE IS
ONLY A THIN STRIP OF 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
LOCAL AREA 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE COLD
FRONT LIMPS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS (30-60% CHC),
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. GIVEN THE
LATER TIMING AND THE BETTER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD FRONT GETS BY EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, CAA WILL BE LACKING SO TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S POTENTIALLY
RETURNING BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTING. THIS BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING SUNDAY, AND
GENERALLY 20% OR LESS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE (~1024MB) IS CENTERED ALONG THE VA/NC AND EXTENDS
OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE CALM TO VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE S TONIGHT, AND THEN
SSW 8-12KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS (HIGHEST
CHC SOUTH AND GREATEST SATURDAY).
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE LATER WED INTO THU. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1026MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AVERAGED ~5 KT OUT OF THE
W-SW OVER THE BAY AND RIVERS, BUT REMAIN LIGHT/ONSHORE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4
FT OFFSHORE (HIGHEST FAR SE WATERS).
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA, SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS BECOME SE
5-10 KT THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE S LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT, GUSTING TO ~20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COMPRESSING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER, 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SUSTAINED SCA
CONDITIONS IS MUCH LOWER FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND EARLY THU MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT,
WITH THE BOUNDARY NOW NOT LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MINIMAL CAA BEHIND THIS
FRONT, AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING STRONG NW WINDS IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HOWEVER, NNE SWELL/WIND WAVE COULD BRIEFLY
BUILD SEAS NEAR 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT IN THE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT S AND 4-5 FT N. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
TRENDING BACK TO THE SSW LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW RIP RISK TOMORROW AND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE RECENT LUNAR PERIGEE
EARLIER THIS WEEK, AND AHEAD OF THE NEW MOON CYCLE LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR THAT REASON, TIDES LOOK REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS, AND COULD APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD
DURING THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER EVENING/EARLY AM TIDE CYCLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER POTOMAC BASIN OVER THE VA NORTHERN
NECK. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR STATEMENTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO THIS POINT, THEY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WATER REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE BAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ639.
DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/AJZ
MARINE...MAM
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