357
FXUS61 KAKQ 090637
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. ALOFT, A BROAD RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NOTE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
LIMITED MOISTURE SO STAYING DRY TODAY WITH SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER, HOWEVER. NOT AS COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND AND LOW 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL
SERVE TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW BUT WILL SLOW AS THE
BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WHICH
WILL KEEP A LID ON HEAT INDEX VALUES, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO STALL NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING AND
LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
MID 80S N AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S S. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND
LINGERS IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER THAN SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE OFFSHORE
TODAY, ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ~10 KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR FEW/SCT CU AROUND
5000 FT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS (HIGHEST
CHC SOUTH AND GREATEST SATURDAY).
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE LATER WED INTO THU. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1026MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AVERAGED ~5 KT OUT OF THE
W-SW OVER THE BAY AND RIVERS, BUT REMAIN LIGHT/ONSHORE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4
FT OFFSHORE (HIGHEST FAR SE WATERS).
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA, SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS BECOME SE
5-10 KT THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE S LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT, GUSTING TO ~20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COMPRESSING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER, 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SUSTAINED SCA
CONDITIONS IS MUCH LOWER FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND EARLY THU MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT,
WITH THE BOUNDARY NOW NOT LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MINIMAL CAA BEHIND THIS
FRONT, AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING STRONG NW WINDS IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HOWEVER, NNE SWELL/WIND WAVE COULD BRIEFLY
BUILD SEAS NEAR 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT IN THE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT S AND 4-5 FT N. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
TRENDING BACK TO THE SSW LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW RIP RISK TOMORROW AND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE RECENT LUNAR PERIGEE
EARLIER THIS WEEK, AND AHEAD OF THE NEW MOON CYCLE LATER THIS
WEEK. FOR THAT REASON, TIDES LOOK REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS, AND COULD APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD
DURING THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER EVENING/EARLY AM TIDE CYCLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER POTOMAC BASIN OVER THE VA NORTHERN
NECK. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR STATEMENTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO THIS POINT, THEY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WATER REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE BAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM
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