266
FXUS61 KAKQ 091032
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. ALOFT, A BROAD RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NOTE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND
WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
LIMITED MOISTURE SO STAYING DRY TODAY WITH SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER, HOWEVER. NOT AS COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND AND LOW 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL
SERVE TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW BUT WILL SLOW AS THE
BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WHICH
WILL KEEP A LID ON HEAT INDEX VALUES, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO STALL NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING AND
LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
MID 80S N AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S S. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND
LINGERS IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER THAN SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE OFFSHORE
TODAY, ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ~10 KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT IT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR FEW/SCT CU AROUND
5000 FT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS (HIGHEST
CHC SOUTH AND GREATEST SATURDAY).
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CANADA WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THU. AS SUCH, S-SW WINDS 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE WAA RAMPS UP AND S WINDS INCREASE BACK
TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU MORNING, BECOMING SW TONIGHT. WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS WERE
AROUND 100% ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH 30-50% PROBS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO
ISSUE SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM THU. WHILE A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT AND THE VA/NC BORDER, CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS WAS
TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE SCAS ANY FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SCAS ACROSS
THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES REMAIN IN EFFECT (4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10 AM THU FOR THE CHES BAY AND 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10
AM THU FOR THE LOWER JAMES). WILL NOTE THAT OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
SCA CONDITIONS WAS TOO LOW TO EXPAND SCAS THERE AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN CANADA GRADUALLY
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THU INTO EARLY FRI, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
MIDDLE CHES BAY THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. HI-RES CAMS WERE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD HELP REDUCE
MIXING, RESULTING IN LOWER WINDS THU AFTERNOON (BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS). ADDITIONALLY, WHILE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DID
NOT SHOW MUCH OF A CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF N WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10- 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT EARLY FRI. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NE 5- 10 KT FRI
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH 10-15 KT WINDS
POSSIBLE SAT. OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY. WAVES AND SEAS
BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND 4-5 FT RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY BY FRI. THERE
IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, CHOPPY
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TODAY INTO THU.
COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE
HAS DECREASED IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
NEVERTHELESS, NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE MD
EASTERN SHORE BORDERING THE CHES BAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNDERPERFORMING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE
OF THE EVENT (WHICH IS STILL TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM NOW),
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ANY COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS AT THIS
TIME. INSTEAD, WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND MAKE THE FINAL DECISION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM
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