138
FXUS61 KAKQ 091818
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST, RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. TO THE NORTH, LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARD QUEBEC,
PUSHING AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID- MISSOURI
VALLEY.
MAINLY SUNNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR-
WEATHER CUMULUS. 18Z TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION, W/ BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, LIGHT BUT STEADY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY MILDER BUT STILL COMFORTABLE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND, LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST, UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW, SLOWING AS THE BOUNDARY ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. RECENT 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ENTERING WESTERN AREAS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGINIA NORTHERN
NECK AND MARYLAND LOWER EASTERN SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE DAMPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMES STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
BETTER AREAWIDE STORM CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL CAP SATURDAY'S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 80S LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. THERE REMAINS AN AREA WIDE ERO THAT COULD SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS FOR SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE MOIST, MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY SLOW STEERING
FLOW.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY. LOOKING
AHEAD, POPS RETURN BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL SUN-MON, TRENDING
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE REBUILDING
SE RIDGE/RISING HEIGHTS LOOK TO PORTEND A PERIOD OF NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
18Z/9 TAF PERIOD AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR BREEZY SSW WINDS ~10 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20KT. MAINLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME SCATTERED FLAT CU AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MAINLY
SKC/VFR TONIGHT, WITH BREEZY SW WINDS ~8-10 KT PERSISTING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CIGS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
(HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND GREATEST ON
SATURDAY). MVFR (LCL IFR) CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PHF-
ORF-ECG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CANADA WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THU. AS SUCH, S-SW WINDS 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE WAA RAMPS UP AND S WINDS INCREASE BACK
TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU MORNING, BECOMING SW TONIGHT. WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS WERE
AROUND 100% ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH 30-50% PROBS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO
ISSUE SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM THU. WHILE A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT AND THE VA/NC BORDER, CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS WAS
TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE SCAS ANY FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SCAS ACROSS
THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES REMAIN IN EFFECT (4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10 AM THU FOR THE CHES BAY AND 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10
AM THU FOR THE LOWER JAMES). WILL NOTE THAT OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
SCA CONDITIONS WAS TOO LOW TO EXPAND SCAS THERE AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN CANADA GRADUALLY
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THU INTO EARLY FRI, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
MIDDLE CHES BAY THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. HI-RES CAMS WERE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD HELP REDUCE
MIXING, RESULTING IN LOWER WINDS THU AFTERNOON (BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS). ADDITIONALLY, WHILE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DID
NOT SHOW MUCH OF A CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF N WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10- 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT EARLY FRI. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NE 5- 10 KT FRI
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH 10-15 KT WINDS
POSSIBLE SAT. OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY. WAVES AND SEAS
BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND 4-5 FT RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY BY FRI. THERE
IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, CHOPPY
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TODAY INTO THU.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RMM
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