182
FXUS61 KAKQ 100543
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE TIDAL RIVERS
FOR AND INCREASE OF SW WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST, RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. TO THE NORTH, LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARD QUEBEC,
PUSHING AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID- MISSOURI
VALLEY.
MAINLY SUNNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR-
WEATHER CUMULUS. 18Z TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION, W/ BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, LIGHT BUT STEADY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY MILDER BUT STILL COMFORTABLE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND, LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST, UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW, SLOWING AS THE BOUNDARY ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. RECENT 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ENTERING WESTERN AREAS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGINIA NORTHERN
NECK AND MARYLAND LOWER EASTERN SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE DAMPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMES STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
BETTER AREAWIDE STORM CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY AS THE STALLED
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL CAP SATURDAY'S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 80S LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. THERE REMAINS AN AREA WIDE ERO THAT COULD SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS FOR SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE MOIST, MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY SLOW STEERING
FLOW.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY. LOOKING
AHEAD, POPS RETURN BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL SUN-MON, TRENDING
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE REBUILDING
SE RIDGE/RISING HEIGHTS LOOK TO PORTEND A PERIOD OF NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY SW WINDS ~10 KT OVERNIGHT, INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT RIC AND SBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING
LIMITS MENTION TO PROB30 GROUPS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT
MANAGES TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, STILL
MAINLY AT SBY AND RIC. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED SHORT-LIVED MVFR CIGS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/STORMS (HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND
GREATEST ON SATURDAY). MVFR (LCL IFR) CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FROM PHF-ORF-ECG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE VA NC
COAST AND A COLD FRONT PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR THE SSW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS ACROSS THOSE TWO AREAS ARE ROUGHLY 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS
SLOWLY APPROACHING 20KT. WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS WINDS ARE REMAINING STEADY AROUND 5-10KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KT. SEAS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH 1-2FT WAVES ACROSS THE BAY AND
2-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHED FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION A DECENTLY STRONG LLJ IS
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KT OUT OF THE SW. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 25-30KT GUSTS ARE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BAY AND
THE COASTAL WATERS CAPE CHARLES AND NORTH. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
AND HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO THE TIDAL RIVERS AND CAPE CHARLES NORTH.
DURING THIS TIME EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-4FT SEAS ACROSS THE
BAY AND 3-4FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE 5FT SEAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING SW
THROUGH THE EVENING ELEVATED SEAS ARE LIKELY IN HE 20-60NM ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 5-7FT.
BY THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEARING
20 KT NEARSHORE AND 25KT OFFSHORE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH 1-2FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3-4FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A ROUND OF
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME NE 5- 10 KT FRI AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
10-15 KT WINDS POSSIBLE SAT. OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER, THE SURF MAYBE CHOPPY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...HET
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