859
FXUS61 KAKQ 101847
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
247 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN.
2) DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, BRINGING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR BERMUDA.
TO THE NORTH, A DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA HAVE PUSHED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND ( LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COAST).
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KT (HIGHEST NNE).
500–700 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT
ZONES, THOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION (75-100 J/KG CIN) REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN VA AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE PER 18Z
ANALYSIS. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW MLCAPE INCREASING TO ~1000 J/KG
BY EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA, AND THE
TIME-LAGGED HRRR STILL LOOKS TO INITIATE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON (20–22Z / 4–6 PM EDT), FOCUSED
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUST TO OUR NW, AIDED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW ORGANIZED
STORM CORES CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 10P-MIDNIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THIS THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z HREF PMM HIGHLIGHTS A 30% SIGNAL FOR 3"/3-HR QPF ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ISSUES REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD, FOCUSED
SOUTH OF US-58. THE DAY 2 ERO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EAST TO COVER
MORE OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-460 IN SOUTHERN/SE
VA AND NORTHEAST NC. TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY SHARP
GRADIENT FRIDAY, RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S
SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK SATURDAY, AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MODEST INSTABILITY (SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE), AND WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD YIELD EFFICIENT WARM
RAINFALL PROCESSES AND ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS
(SUPPORTED BY AN AREA-WIDE WPC ERO MARGINAL RISK). CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A LID ON SATURDAY HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SUNDAY, LEADING TO NOTICEABLY
LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, BRINGING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, WITH RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING BELOW 20% (ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND COASTAL NE NC MONDAY). DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY TICK BACK UP MID-TO-
LATE WEEK AS HEAT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BUILD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF RIC TO SBY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY SW WINDS 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT RIC AND SBY AFTER 6-8PM THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LIMITS MENTION TO
PROB30 GROUPS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE FRI MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. FINALLY,
INCREASING LLJ AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LLWS AT PHF- KORF- KECG AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERS/MEANDERS NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND GREATEST ON
SATURDAY. MVFR (LCL IFR) CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PHF-
ORF-ECG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED
FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT IS
ATTACHED TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OFFSHORE, BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW LIFTING FURTHER AWAY, THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
HAS WEAKENED SOME SINCE THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN TO
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO HAVE LET ALL SCAS
EXPIRE. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE LOWER
BAY, BUT ALL SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED NO HEADLINES. CURRENT OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED QUICKLY DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW, WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT BEING MEASURED. WAVES IN
THE BAY ARE BEFORE 1-2 FT.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS SURGE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY
AND CURRITUCK SOUND, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SW WIND FLOW. WINDS
BECOME NE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRI. WHILE SOME CAMS SHOW 15- 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
CAA IS WEAK WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SCA. THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH
WINDS OF GENERALLY 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON MONDAY,
THOUGH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SO THE PERIOD OF ANY CAA
LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS AS OF NOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SUB-
SCA AFTER THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVES AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
NORTHERN BEACHES BUMPING UP TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS FLOW
BECOMES ONSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...NM
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