061
FXUS61 KAKQ 260535
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
135 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WORCESTER COUNTY IN MD AND
THE VA EASTERN SHORE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW.
STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED ANOTHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
(SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY). HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE COAST AS A NOR'EASTER STRENGTHENS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
2) WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING (INUNDATION OF 2-3+
FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MIDDLE BAY SEEING FLOODING PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE COAST AS A NOR'EASTER STRENGTHENS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
HOLDING FAST TO PIVOTING THE LOW INTO NEW JERSEY LATER THIS
WEEKEND, THEN THE LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE MID- ATLANTIC BEFORE
TRACKING UP THE COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS,
CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR INCREASED IMPACTS LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS SHIFT HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE COAST. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND UP TO 25MPH FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WORCESTER, ACCOMACK,
AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT REMAINING BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO
30MPH EXPECTED AT THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS FINALLY RETURN MONDAY
AS THE STORM PULLS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. RAIN
WILL PUSH BACK INTO COASTAL AREAS FROM OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW SLIDES NORTH AND WEST. THE
STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE QPF
IS BETWEEN 0.5-1.5". FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS, THE RAIN SHOULD
STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE CLOSER TO DRIZZLE WITH QPF UNDER 0.25".
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST AS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRYING OUT. THE ADJUSTED
NOR'EASTER TRACK ALSO HAS AN IMPACT ON COASTAL FLOODING, WHICH
IS ADDRESSED IN KEY MESSAGE 2.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER NEXT WEEK LEADING TO CALMER WEATHER.
LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3+ FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE BAY SEEING FLOODING PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST, WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BACK OVER THE REGION, NOW CLOSER TO N TO NNE. IN
ADDITION, THE SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY AT 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. HOWEVER, THIS HAS DONE LITTLE TO CHANGE THE COASTAL
FLOOD SITUATION WITH MOST SITES STILL SEEING ANOMALIES OF 2.5-3.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR ANOMALIES TO PERSIST. THESE ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LIKELY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE TIDAL SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERALL, STORM SURGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EVEN HIGHER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS, ESPECIALLY INSIDE THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, FOR OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE MODELS TRENDING WEST AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WITH THE NOR'EASTER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE N-NW FLOW
INSIDE THE BAY LEADING TO MORE EBBING AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE INCREASED WATER LEVELS WITH A BETTER
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE TIDE FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED
SLIGHTLY FOR MOST SIDES, WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES (~0.5 FT)
ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED OUT
ANOTHER CYCLE, SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL
EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY N AND NW WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, FROM THE NE TO SW AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS BACK TOWARD THE NJ COAST. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE ~11Z
THIS MORNING AT SBY. SOME MODELS WANT TO BRING THIS IN QUICKER, BUT
GIVEN THE CURRENT HEIGHTS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S, AM THINKING
MVFR CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD IN UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT SBY AS WELL AS SOME MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. ORF AND PHF WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BUILD IN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RIC/ECG MAY BE ON THE CUSP OF THE MVFR
CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CIGS MAY IMPACT
COASTAL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SBY, INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE, EVEN NEAR THE COAST, LATE SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT NORTH OFFSHORE OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARSHORE ZONES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ZONES NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON, ~996 MB DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER IS LOCATED WELL OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER INTO EASTERN CANADA.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE N AND ARE AVERAGING 25 TO 30 KNOTS,
WITH GUSTS ~35 KNOTS. SEAS RANGE FROM 8 TO 12+ FEET NEARSHORE AND 15
TO 20+ FEET OFFSHORE.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
KEEPING THE DEEPENING LOW WELL OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD LONG
ISLAND. AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE WATERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55+ KNOTS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS CURRENTLY
UNDER A STORM WARNING, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (LOWER IN THE UPPER RIVERS). THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 8 PM (00 UTC) AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO WELL OVER 20 FEET OUT 60 NM, AND EVEN 10 TO
15+ FEET NEARSHORE. IN ADDITION, WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 7+ FEET (UP TO 10 FEET AT THE MOUTH).
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING LOW
MEANDERS TOWARD THE NJ COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
EXITS SLOWLY TO THE NNE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIND DIRECTION
GRADUALLY SHIFT NNW TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS FALL BELOW GALE
THRESHOLDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. CALMER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
COASTAL HAZARDS: FINALLY, THE LONG-DURATION NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS, CURRENTLY IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE.
SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 FT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINTAINING
COASTAL HAZARDS. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS EVEN AS WINDS BECOME NNW.
LOCALIZED BEACH AND DUNE EROSION REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-085-
086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ083-084-099-
100-518-520-523.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ081-082-089-
090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ097-098-525-
529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ639.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-658-686-
688.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ680-682-684.
DISCUSSION...AJB/AC/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
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