744
FXUS61 KAKQ 270134
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORIES AND STORM WARNINGS HAVE ENDED. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. TIDES HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE
WITH LOCALIZED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NE. HOWEVER,
RAIN COULD MAKE IT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND HAMPTON ROADS THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE ON SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MID TO UPPER
80S FORECAST BY LATE WEEK.
2) WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING (INUNDATION
OF 2-3+ FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. TIDES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE BAY SEEING FLOODING PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NE. HOWEVER, RAIN COULD MAKE IT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND HAMPTON
ROADS THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE ON SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S FORECAST BY LATE WEEK.
THE IMPRESSIVE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE, AND THE
CENTER IS WELL DEFINED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RATHER PLEASANT AND
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, WITH LOWER-MID 70S,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S
IN THE COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN HAS
UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR TODAY, WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ON THE
NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED,
BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 35-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SHORE
THROUGH THIS EVENING (THOUGH THE GREATEST IMPACTS BY FAR FROM HERE
ON OUT WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING). A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, TRACKING FROM NNW-SSE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADIER
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ARE FROM 5 PM-1 AM ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN
NECK. HOWEVER, THE RAIN COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE
NORTHERN I-95 CORRIDOR, RIC METRO, AND HAMPTON ROADS AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY WILL BE IN THE 0.25-0.75"
RANGE ON THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH 0.10" AT BEST TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE NE ON SUNDAY AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING
TO THE WNW (GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY), EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES/DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE EASTERN SHORE WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 60S. THE LOW WEAKENS AND WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DAY IN THE
70S...WITH 70F READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE AT
LEAST SOME SUN IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON WED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE E/SE CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY WX FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY
THU/FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3+ FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) CONTINUES TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TIDES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY AT MOST SPOTS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE BAY SEEING FLOODING
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED N/NW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED TIDES. TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1-3 FT ABOVE
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. TIDAL ANOMALIES
DECREASE SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME NW. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE CHES BAY ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE NW WINDS
PUSH WATER TOWARDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAY. CONDITIONS
FINALLY BEGIN TO NOTABLY IMPROVE SUN EVENING INTO MON AS WINDS
DIMINISH. NEVERTHELESS, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF NUISANCE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MON.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 930 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MIX OF FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. IFR IS
CONFINED TO MD WITH A BAND OF MVFR EXTENDING TO THE SW ACROSS
THE CHES BAY, INCLUDING PHF AND ORF. EXPECT RIC AND ECG TO GO
MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL SPREADS
SOUTH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING VSBYS TO STAY VFR OR MVFR.
PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT AT SBY BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS LARGELY HANG ON ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING ON SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE. SBY
LIKELY STAYS MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY BY MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE, EVEN NEAR THE COAST, LATE
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DEEPENING NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT NORTH OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST TOWARD LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A ~992 MB NOR'EASTER CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST. MEANWHILE, ~1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING NE INTO SE QC.
DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS,
WITH THE LATEST OBS SHOWING N/NNW WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35-40 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH 15-20
KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OVER THE TIDAL RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE COAST OF MD WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45
KT ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, SEAS WERE 8-13 FT NEARSHORE AND
12-15 FT OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
CHES BAY AND MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GALE WARNINGS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO
CHINTOTEAGUE VA (20 TO 60 NM) CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MEANDERS TOWARD THE NJ COAST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
IS THEN FORECAST TO EXIT SLOWLY TO THE NNE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED SUN WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT (POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS). AS SUCH, ONCE GALE WARNINGS END, THEY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH SCAS THROUGH SUN. MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CALMER
MARINE CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-LATE WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE NEARSHORE WAVES OF 8-12 FT, HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED BEACH AND
DUNE EROSION REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH SUN. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IMPROVES TO MODERATE
BY MON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ083-084-099-
100-518-520-523.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-085-
086-089-090-521-522-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ081-082.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ097-098-525-
529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-
652-654-656-658-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ680.
DISCUSSION...ERI/KMC/RMM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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