493
FXUS61 KAKQ 271052
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AS MINOR
TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE REPLACED ALL GALE WARNINGS EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHERN MOST OFFSHORE ZONE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SHORE, DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE TODAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.
2) TIDES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY, THOUGH MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOODING REMAINS
ELEVATED OVER THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE, WITH MINOR
COASTAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING PERSISTING INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SHORE, DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE TODAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.
THE IMPRESSIVE NOR'EASTER WILL WEAKEN AROUND THE NJ COAST TODAY,
CONTINUING TO BRING IMPACTS, ALBEIT FEWER IMPACTS THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. COASTAL FLOODING FOR COASTAL AREAS (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2), LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN SHORE, AND BREEZY WINDS FROM A WELL
MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, LIGHT RAIN
WAS NOTED ON THE RADAR ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW THE LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. CHC POPS OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS OVER THE VA EASTERN SHORE CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON,
DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS ONLY THE MD EASTERN SHORE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LINGERING PRECIP, HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN NECK AND MIDDLE PENINSULA TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA, AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WELL
MIXED. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK FURTHER NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH LOWER 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK TO UPPER
70S IN NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE E/SE
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY WX OVER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ARE POSSIBLE BY THU/FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TIDES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY, THOUGH MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOODING REMAINS
ELEVATED OVER THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE, WITH MINOR
COASTAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING PERSISTING INTO MONDAY.
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH, LINGERING OFF THE
NJ/LONG ISLAND COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE BEGUN
TO EASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AS WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE, BUT REMAIN
1-2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THIS
MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC, RAPPAHANNOCK, AND UPPER JAMES RIVERS, AS WELL AS VIRGINIA
BEACH AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE, CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY EASTERN
SHORE AS GUSTY NW WINDS PILE WATER ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BAY. CONDITIONS NOTABLY IMPROVE SUN EVENING INTO MON AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND OFFSHORE FLOW ENHANCES TIDAL DRAINAGE DURING EBB
CYCLES. NEVERTHELESS, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING (AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES) ARE EXPECTED INTO MON
EVENING FOR THE MD ZONES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. SBY IS SEEING
MVFR CIGS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL AREAS (MAINLY AFFECTING SBY)
THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MAJOR
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. WNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO ~20-25 KT
THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE, EVEN NEAR THE COAST, BY LATE
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY, AS A DEEPENING
NOR'EASTER LINGERS FARTHER TO OUR NORTH OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A 988MB NOR'EASTER DRIFTING JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND, NY, WHICH WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE NJ COAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, BROAD 1020+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS, MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS IS RESULTING IN GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT, HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER NNE, CURRENTLY AVERAGING 5-8 FT
WITH WAVES 2-5 FT (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY). WAVES
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.
GALES HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCAS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
OFFSHORE ZONE (680), WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE THRESHOLD BY
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED SUN, WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SCAS LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE UPPER RIVERS AND SOUND, AND LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE LOWER JAMES, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ATLANTIC NEARSHORE WATERS.
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
NOR'EASTER FINALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING MORE
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS (WAVES/SEAS 1-2 FT, W-SW WINDS AOB 10
KT) THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ097-525-
529>531.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ099-100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075-
077-078-085-086-089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ076-
521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ081-
082.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ083-084-518-520-523.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
639-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
DISCUSSION...ERI/KMC/MAM
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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