062
FXUS61 KAKQ 280638
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
238 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS CONTINUE TO LESSEN WITH
EASING WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES. 1-2 MORE
ROUNDS OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH JUST A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND LIMITED MOISTURE AS IT SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OFF OF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKE REGION THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F ON THE EASTERN SHORE
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MAINLAND VA AND NC. TUESDAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, FLIRTING WITH THE 80S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 80S WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 90F THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE LIKELY WITH THE EASTERN SHORE SEEING TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY. THE SFC AND UPPER-AIR SYNOPTICS SUPPORT DRY
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
SOME SORT OF SOUTHERN STREAM OR ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM; THUS, NBM POPS ARE
ONLY 20-50% FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS CONTINUE TO LESSEN WITH
EASING WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES. 1-2 MORE
ROUNDS OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ON THE TIDAL
RAPPAHANNOCK/POTOMAC SITES TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS MORNING. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR WATER TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND ACCORDINGLY, A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
WILL NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE TO COVER RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME, WHILE TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
MIDWEEK DUE TO CONTINUED HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LUNAR CYCLE, ONLY NUISANCE TO NEAR-MINOR TIDAL LEVELS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE MAIN TERMINALS
EXCEPT ECG. MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR RIC/ORF/PHF, CONTINUING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, LIKELY LIFTING AROUND 08-10Z. IFR CIGS AT SBY
LIKELY LINGER PAST SUNRISE INTO MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
SOME LOWERED VSBY ~5SM IS POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY FOG AT SBY AS WELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ECG HAS SOME CLOUD CLEARING AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW AND WNW WINDS ARE
AROUND 5-10 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 235 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO STEADILY WEAKEN.
THE SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED TO 1004MB, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOCALLY, WINDS ARE STILL A
BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NW 10-15 KT. SCA FOR FAR NORTHERN WATERS OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL COME DOWN WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE,
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER. WEAK RIDGING FROM THE HIGH TO THE
W-NW BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN W-NW WINDS OF 10 KT OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT W-NW
WINDS 5-10 KT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TURN ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK TO THE W-SW AND
INCREASING TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WAVES 1-2 FT (UP TO 3 IN THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND SEAS OF 2
TO 3 FT SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075-077-078-085-086.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630-631.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM/SW
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...MAM/MRD
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