176
FXUS61 KAKQ 281015
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS CONTINUE TO LESSEN WITH
EASING WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES. 1-2 MORE
ROUNDS OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH JUST A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND LIMITED MOISTURE AS IT SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OFF OF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKE REGION THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F ON THE EASTERN SHORE
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MAINLAND VA AND NC. TUESDAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, FLIRTING WITH THE 80S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 80S WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 90F THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE LIKELY WITH THE EASTERN SHORE SEEING TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY. THE SFC AND UPPER-AIR SYNOPTICS SUPPORT DRY
WX THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
SOME SORT OF SOUTHERN STREAM OR ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM; THUS, NBM POPS ARE
ONLY 20-50% FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS CONTINUE TO LESSEN WITH
EASING WINDS. 1-2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MINOR FLOODING REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ON THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK AND
POTOMAC SITES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR WATER TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ACCORDINGLY A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WILL NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE TO COVER RESIDUAL MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME, WHILE TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE
TO HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LUNAR
CYCLE, ONLY NUISANCE TO NEAR-MINOR TIDAL LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE MAIN TERMINALS
EXCEPT ECG. MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FOR RIC/ORF/PHF, CONTINUING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, LIKELY LIFTING AROUND 08-10Z. IFR CIGS AT SBY
LIKELY LINGER PAST SUNRISE INTO MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
SOME LOWERED VSBY ~5SM IS POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY FOG AT SBY AS WELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ECG HAS SOME CLOUD CLEARING AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW AND WNW WINDS ARE
AROUND 5-10 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 615 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO STEADILY
WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF THE NJ COAST. THE SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED
TO 1004MB, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOCALLY, WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY OUT OF THE NW
~10-15 KT. SCAS FOR NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
ALSO WERE LOWERED ON TIME WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER. WEAK RIDGING FROM THE HIGH TO THE
W-NW BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING W-NW
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAR MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIGHT W-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TURN ONSHORE WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK TO
THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES BY THE
WEEKEND.
WAVES 1-2 FT (UP TO 3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND SEAS
OF 2-3 FT SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THIS MORNING, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW RISK TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ099-100.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM/SW
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...MAM/MRD
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